Gas supply: Will Europe soon be less vulnerable?
Since the cessation of most Russian gas supplies, reducing Europe's energy vulnerability, and thus improving its economic security, has been a key issue for European decision-makers. However, recent pressure from the United States on Europe to increase its purchases of US hydrocarbons could raise fears of a new significant dependence on US liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In general, gas supplies to European countries remain a key issue, not only in terms of exposure to geopolitical risk but also in terms of economic stability. Despite significant progress in decarbonisation, natural gas still accounts for a quarter of the total European energy mix and around 18% of theelectricity mix. Above all, its price is the key factor in setting wholesale electricity prices in Europe: according to the ’merit order’ principle, priority is given to energy sources with the lowest marginal cost for electricity supply, while the price per kilowatt-hour (kWh) is set at the highest marginal cost. Given the structure of the European electricity mix, gas-fired power stations are generally the last to be called upon, and therefore determine the European price per kWh on the wholesale market.
Sharp rise in US LNG imports
Europe's dependence on Russian gas has fallen sharply since 2022. It has fallen from around 50% of total gas imports until 2021 to 13% in the first half of 2025. Only the flows transported by the Turkstream gas pipeline, which supplies certain Eastern European countries, and LNG flows remain.
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BNP Paribas Team
BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.
