FX weekly: DXY and 14 currency pair levels and targets

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

Historic April for USD/JPY since 1994 traded 18 down months to 11 up months. USD/JPY followed the DXY patterm as DXY traded 18 down months to 10 months up. Since 2008, the USD/JPY Vs DXY relationship remained the same at 10 down months vs 5 months up. Since 2018, USD/JPY and DXY traded 2 down months to 3 up months.

Since 1694 and BOE establishment as the first central bank followed by Scotland in 1695, markets subdivided to 50 year periods and 4 quadrants with each quadrant valued at 12 1/2 years.

Markets currently trade in the center of the 3rd quadrant of 50 years which began in 1994. The 3rd period began in 2018 and runs to 2030. Traditional 3rd periods trade as correction phases from 2nd quadrant market crashes. The very dark, unsettled, Wars, economic experiments and sick volatility comes to markets after 2030 to 2042 - 2044.

Separated by Quadrants exposes the dramatic effects to USD/JPY and DXY for April trade.

From 1994 to 2007 as the 1st Quadrant, USD/JPY traded April 8 down months to 5 up months Vs DXY at 7 down months to 6 months up.

The 2nd Quadrant from 2007 to 1018, USD/JPY traded 9 months down and 4 months up Vs DXY 9 down and 3 up months.

The 3rd quadrant from 2018 to 2030 forecasts to trade the same down months for April as USD/JPY and DXY. As a whole from 1994, 18 months were down Vs 11 up months.

The week

Long Term Targets: GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, CAD/JPY.

GBP/NZD bottoms are rock solid at 1.9400's and 1.9500's and trades a range from 1.9500;s to 1.9919. GBP/NZD open at 1.9700's trades dead center to the 1.9500 to 1.9900 range. Long term targets are non existent.

EUR/NZD supports are located every 100 pips from 1.6700, 1.6800, 1.6900 and 1.7147. Shorts are located at any price above 1.7257. EUR/NZD is driven higher by a wider range to GBP/NZD.

Nothing special exists to GBP/NZD or EUR/NZD except daily and weekly trades.

CAD/JPY below 98.63 targets 96.00, 94.34 and 93.60. USD/CAD requires a break at 1.3574 to travel higher.

USD/JPY's big break for higher is now 133.86 and lower target at 131.50's.

DXY overbought begins at low 103.00's and overbought EUR/USD at 1.0900;s. The EUR/USD range is located from 1.0653 to 1.0900;s or 300 pips while DXY's next low is found at 101.90's then 100.36.

GBP/USD trades from 1.2120 to 1.2500's. Any price below 1.2202 is good to go for longs as 1.2120 holds.

NZD/USD any price below 0.6289 is good for longs. NZD/USD trades 0.6213 to 0.6467 and break at 0.6213 trades back to 0.6100;s and long again.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD short to targets while USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs trade oversold but nothing special to weekly moves.

Expected for the week is more of the same rather than breakouts or dramatic moves.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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