Focus on ISM today

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

lmportant news this week:

Wed, 01st, 15:00 CET US Fed Chairman Warsh Speech
Wed, 01st, 15:00 CET UK BoE Chairman Bailey Speech
Thu, 02nd, 14:30 CET US Nonfarm Payrolls/Average Hourly Earnings

Dollar strength returns as markets await ISM data

The US dollar continues to strengthen, remaining one of the dominant themes across financial markets. While equities have managed to hold recent gains, momentum has slowed noticeably as investors become more cautious ahead of today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. The report will provide another important update on the health of the US economy and could shape expectations ahead of this week's Non-Farm Payrolls release. A stronger-than-expected PMI would likely reinforce the view that the US economy remains resilient, providing further support for the dollar.

Equity markets continue to trade sideways, suggesting that investors are reluctant to take on significant new positions before key economic data. Precious metals remain vulnerable, with Gold and especially Silver at risk of testing recent lows should the dollar extend its rally. The Japanese Yen continues to weaken, with yield differentials remaining firmly in favor of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, FX traders are closely monitoring whether current dollar strength can develop into a broader breakout across major currency pairs.

Market talk

Market sentiment remains cautiously positive but is beginning to lose momentum. A stronger US Dollar is creating headwinds for metals and several major currencies, while equities remain resilient despite limited upside. Investors are now shifting their focus toward today's ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's NFP report, both of which could significantly influence expectations for Fed policy. Strong economic data would likely support the dollar further, while weaker figures could revive expectations for future rate cuts and improve sentiment across risk assets. For now, markets remain in wait-and-see mode.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities sideways, USD stronger, BTC weak, oil weak, Silver weak, Gold weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

GBP/USD slides below 1.3250 after failing to break through 23.6% Fibo

The GBP/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a nearly two-week high around the 1.3275 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3235 zone, down 0.20% for the day, as traders look to speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for a fresh impetus.

EUR/USD keeps losses near 1.1400 ahead of Eurozone inflation data

EUR/USD keeps the offered tone intact near 1.1400 in early Europe on Wednesday, pressured by receding bets for aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders will take more cues from the preliminary reading of the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices and the US Manufacturing PMI report due later in the day.

Gold sticks to bearish bias below $4,000 amid Fed hike bets and Iran risks

Gold attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's good two-way price swings, and weakens further below the $4,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. This marks the third straight day of a slide and keeps the precious metal closer to its lowest level since November 2025. Moreover, a bullish US Dollar suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside.

Solana: Retail confidence backs SOL testing 50-day EMA breakout near $75

Solana price extends gains, testing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average around $75.00. Although institutional demand for Solana remains weak, stabilizing retail confidence, with rising funding rates and steady Open Interest, supports the mild recovery. The technical outlook for SOL shifts mildly bullish, projecting a potential breakout rally toward the $100 mark.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The European Central Bank Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Federal Reserve, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.