Focus on FOMC

Frank Walbaum

lmportant news this week:

Wed, 29th Jul, 03:30 CET AU Consumer Price Index.
Wed, 29th Jul, 20:00 CET US FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

Thu, 30th Jul, 13:00 CET UK BoE Interest Rate Decision.
Thu, 30th Jul, 14:30 CET US PCE Price Index.
Fri, 31st Jul, tentative JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision.

Rotation continues as markets await the FOMC decision

Equity markets remain mixed as investors continue rotating out of AI and high-growth technology stocks into more traditional blue-chip names. The Dow Jones is outperforming, while the DAX remains one of the strongest major indices, supported by industrial and value-oriented sectors. The Nasdaq continues to lag as technology stocks struggle to regain momentum. Attention now turns to today's FOMC decision, with markets having largely priced in another rate hike. The focus will be less on the decision itself and more on the Fed's guidance regarding inflation and future policy.
Precious metals are recovering after recent weakness, suggesting bargain buying is emerging ahead of the central bank announcement. Cryptocurrencies have also stabilised, with Bitcoin and major altcoins trading firmer as sentiment improves slightly. In FX markets, the Euro and British Pound remain broadly sideways against the US Dollar, while the Australian Dollar is underperforming. The weakness in AUD points to a slightly more cautious risk environment, even as equity markets remain relatively resilient.

Market talk

Today's FOMC meeting is expected to be the main market driver. If the Fed maintains a hawkish tone and signals that rates will remain higher for longer, the US Dollar could strengthen further and renew pressure on equities, metals, and cryptocurrencies. A more balanced or dovish message, however, could support another leg higher in risk assets. With markets already positioned for a rate hike, the wording of Chair Jerome Powell's press conference is likely to determine the next major move across FX, equities, and commodities.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities mixed, USD stronger (FOMC!), crypto positive, oil sideways, Silver sideways, Gold sideways.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 as USD retains bullish bias ahead of FOMC

Gold remains offered below $4,050 during Wednesday's early European session, snapping a two-day winning streak ahead of the key central bank event. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the focus will remain on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference.

Zcash's bullish momentum mounts on steady ETF inflows, retail confidence

Zcash extends steady recovery above $1,300 on Wednesday, approaching a key resistance near $1,373. Grayscale’s ZEC-focused Exchange-Traded Fund sees persistent buying pressure, with six straight days of inflows, including more than $3 million on Tuesday.

FOMC outlook: Why keeping rates unchanged might not be enough

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be quite interesting, even if the Federal Reserve decides to leave interest rates unchanged. According to the latest market expectations, there is currently a 92.8% probability that rates will remain at 3.75–4.00%, while the probability of another 25 basis point increase stands at just 7.2%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.