Focal points going into the weekend include news flow on JP issuance, and of course Jackson Hole

Asia Market Update: Focal points going into the weekend include news flow on JP issuance, and of course Jackson Hole, Trump/Xi and Iran; Post-earnings NVDA developments have been of interest; Little to report on Tokyo CPI; BYD earnings due.

General trend and developments

-Cautious and mixed trading seen ahead of Jackson Hole comments and potential weekend risks [Iran, ongoing US/Canada trade spat]

-US equity futures opened modestly higher at the 6 p.m. ET Thursday open, with Nasdaq futures up 0.1% at 29,660 (vs. 29,630 at the close) and S&P 500 futures up 0.1% at 7,740 (vs. 7,733 at the close), after cash equities had zoomed higher earlier in the day following strong AI-related earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike. Trading was not restrained by Nvidia’s confirmation that memory supplies remain a bottleneck, or by this morning’s report by Politico that the White House is contemplating a new round of chip tariffs.

-As expected, the Jackson Hole official agenda was released featuring a range of high-level speakers [h ttps://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/2026/]. . Traders will now be watching closely at Chair Warsh’s Opening Remarks: Kevin Warsh | Chairman, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System scheduled at 10:00 a.m. EDT/8:00 a.m. MDT, streamed on the following link [live]. Sept Fed rate hike bets remain alive, although still in the minority.

-BOJ tightening expectations help limit demand at today’s 2-year JGB auction [lowest BTC since 2016]. Month-end and issuance speculation, also, in focus Japan PM Takaichi plans to limit newly-issued JGBs to ¥40T/year, says Yomiuri. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara commented on the topic of an extra budget.

-More positivity, yet uncertainty, seen regarding Iran. Most recently, US CENTCOM confirmed the successful clearing of the sea mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had made similar comments earlier in Aug. The NY Post characterized the CENTCOM comments as a ‘major’ milestone in the Iran War. Even still, the situation remains uncertain. The US White House is reportedly not interested in renewing the June MOU deal with Iran, according to the WSJ. However, developments can always change over the weekend.

-BSP focuses on FX weakness and weather conditions/inflation: Earlier on Fri, the PHP declined to fresh record lows versus the US dollar.The weak trade data appeared unhelpful. FX weakness, also, comes despite the expected BSP rate hike on Thurs. Philippines Central Bank Gov Remolona added '[it is] difficult to prevent Peso depreciation', we will 'run out of reserves'. To recap, BSP raised its overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% and the standing overnight deposit rate by the same amount to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive hike in the current tightening cycle for a cumulative 75 basis points, as expected. The move aims to anchor inflationary expectations amid easing headline inflation, with the central bank projecting 2028 CPI to settle close to its 3.0% target, while growth fundamentals remain intact and are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year. Notably, the BSP flagged “El Niño” as a key upside risk to inflation and said it is closely monitoring wage developments, adding that it stands ready to take further measures as needed.

-The planet is currently experiencing a massive climate transition driven by a rapidly intensifying "Super El Niño" event, which meteorologists warn could rank among the strongest on record. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures have risen more than 2°C above average over the past month, contributing to extreme marine heatwaves and significant disruptions to global atmospheric circulation. From September–November through November–January 2026–27, there is a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño developing, with a 69% chance during October–December 2026 that the event will reach historic strength, exceeding the intensity of previous El Niño events recorded since 1950.

- The Australian consumer is still struggling with inflation, according to earnings reports. According to Harvey Norman [large furniture retailer] retail conditions became ‘more variable’ during H2 amid inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, PEXA Group become the latest firm to warn on Australia’s property market. Therefore, we are on alert for any possible negative impact of inflation on Q2 consumption and GDP [Q2 GDP data is due on Sept 2nd]. Recall, hotter than expected July inflation data was released on Wed. Further in nominal terms, Jul household spending was 7% higher y/y [highest annual growth since June 2023]. Q2 CAPEX unexpectedly contracted on the slowdown in data center spending.

-China NDRC issues robotics development warning amid ongoing trade tensions with the US, with its spokesperson stating that robot development must be tailored to local conditions w/local resource endowments and industrial strengths, and pursued in a sound and orderly manner. At time of writing, S&P has affirmed China’s sovereign credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook.

-US equity FUTs -0.3% to -0.1% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time-zone)

-Mon Aug 24th: TW July Unemployment Rate, (Mon night, MX Q2 GDP).

-Tue Aug 25th: KR Aug Consumer Confidence, SG Q2 Prelim GDP, AU RBA Meeting Minutes, JP BoJ Core CPI, TW July Industrial Production, HK Jul Trade Balance, (Tue night, US Jul New Home Sales & Building Permits, US Aug CB Consumer Confidence).

-Wed Aug 26th: AU Q2 Construction Work Done, SG July Industrial Production, TH BoT Interest Rate Decision, (Wed night, US July Core PCE, US Q2 GDP (2nd revision) & Prelim Personal Spending/Durable Goods Orders, RU July Industrial Production).

-Thu Aug 27th: KR BoK Interest Rate Decision, CN July Industrial Profit YTD, PH BSP Interest Rate Decision, (Thu night, ECB Monetary Policy Accounts, US Jackson Hole Symposium Begins, MX July Trade Balance).

-Fri Aug 28th: JP Aug Tokyo CPI & Core CPI, JP July Unemployment Rate, PH July Trade Balance, TH July Industrial Production, EU Aug Consumer Confidence, (Fri night, CA Q2 GDP, US Jackson Hole Symposium Fed Governor Warsh Speaks, US Aug Chicago PMI).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Tue Aug 25th: Indonesia, Malaysia.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens +0.2% at 9,058.

-(AU) Australia sells A$800M v A$800M indicated in 4.25% Dec 2035 Bonds; Avg Yield: 5.0539% v 4.748% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.88x v 4.34x prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 98.0 v 99.3 prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand July Filled Jobs M/M: 0.3% v 0.1% prior.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens -0.2% at 3,950; (HK) Hang Seng opens -0.6% at 25,410.

-(CN) S&P AFFIRMS CHINA SOVEREIGN RATING AT A+; OUTLOOK STABLE.

-(CN) China State Planner (NDRC) Spokesperson: Robot development must be tailored to local conditions and pursued in a sound and orderly manner; China 'squeeze' meant to 'deny others' right to development.

-(CN) Chinese Executives may join President Xi's US trip - SCMP.

-(CN) China issues logistics network framework to cut costs as part of plan to lower logistics cost-to-GDP ratio to 13.1% by 2030 - NDRC.

-(CN) China bonds face ‘spiking’ volatility, ending one-way rally – Chinese press [update].

-(CN) China news update: BYD [1211.HK] to report earnings after the HK close.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7811 v 6.7840 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY20B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY246B v injects CNY607B prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY333B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repos.

-(HK) Hong Kong equity placements shift to AI capex and compute; China miners and processors [copper, tin and tungsten] gain from AI-driven metals 'surge' – Chinese press.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +0.8% at 66,776.

-(JP) JAPAN AUG TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.8%E.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: [Confirms] Cabinet reshuffle mid-to-late September - Yomiuri.

-(JP) JAPAN SELLS ¥2.8T VS. ¥2.8T INDICATED IN 2-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 1.7080% V 1.483% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 2.97X V 3.63X PRIOR.

-(JP) Japan July Jobless Rate: 2.4% v 2.5%e.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: Economic, finance management is not targeted at FX; US-Japan joint FX statement has very strong meaning; Takaichi administration is determined to boost economy and competitiveness, as a result of credibility in yen will increase.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cab Sec Kihara: Extra budget if needed to be limited to urgent measures.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi plans to limit newly-issued JGBs to ¥40T/year (v ¥32.7T/year prior) - Yomiuri.

-(JP) Japan Aug 1-10 Exports Y/Y: +15.5%; Imports +25.8% (provisional).

-(JP) Japan FSA Official: Japan boosting scrutiny of ultra-long home loans.

-(JP) Japan sells ¥3.7T vs. ¥3.7T indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.0794% v 1.0816% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.21x v 3.87x prior.

-(JP) 5401.JP Japan Defense Ministry purchases land in Hiroshima from Nippon Steel.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens -1.1% at 6,837.

-(KR) South Korea national pension services returns +27.2% in H2.

-(KR) South Korea National Security Adviser Wi: South Korea seeking to strengthen cooperation with US over current issues including investments, Coupang, national security affairs; South Korea must not be sidelined in efforts to resume US-North Korea dialogue.

Other Asia

-(PH) PHILIPPINES CENTRAL BANK (BSP) RAISES OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE BY 25BPS TO 5.00%; AS EXPECTED [EU market close].

-(PH) Philippines July Trade Balance: -$6.0B v -$5.2Be.

-(PH) USD/PHP Philippine's Peso weakens to record lows of as much as -0.6% to PHP62.216/USD; weak trade data was unhelpful; FX weakness comes despite the BSP rate hike on Thurs.

-(PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP): We are monitoring the FX market; Intervenes to address disorderly market conditions.

-(TW) Taiwan's $6.3B tech loan pipeline pressures bank liquidity - EDN.

-(TW) Taiwan's opposition-controlled parliament approves TWD40B (≈$1.26B) annual military drone spending, but rejects a government plan for a special defense budget of TWD210B (≈$6.63B) through 2031 - [update].

-(IN) India GST council reportedly 'may' cut 18% tax on mobile phones; notes slowing demand for handsets - Mint.

North America

-(US) Jackson Hole Symposium 2026 Full Agenda Released: Central Bankers Convene on Financial Innovation, Payments & Policy.

-(US) Flexport Global Logistics Update: Spot rates in FEWB have eased roughly 20% from their July peak, remaining ~60% above spring levels.

-(US) SMH *WHITE HOUSE MULLS NEW ROUND OF TARIFFS ON CHIPS WITH PHASE-IN PERIOD - POLITICO [EU market close]-(US) US Trade Representative Greer: Canada took issue with implementation of proposed deal; Have settled with China on key issues - Fox News Interview [EU market close].

-(US) Fed's Hammack (voter, hawkish dissenter): Yesterday's PCE inflation number was as expected; Now is the time to raise interest rates to help lower inflation [US market close].

-(US) Fed's Collins (non-voter): Recent personal consumption expenditures report did not change modal outlook that current monetary policy is restrictive and will lead to a gradual disinflation - press interview [US market close].

-(US) Fed's Schmid (hawk; non-voter): Fed needs more information; Midterms will not affect Fed's Oct meeting decision; Energy shock is leaking into economy [US market close].

-(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 203K V 208KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.778M V 1.79ME [US market close].

-(US) JULY ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$118.8B V -$100.5BE; Exports M/M: -2.9% v -1.0%e; Imports M/M: +3.7% v -0.3%e [US market close].

-(US) JULY PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 1.3% V 0.2%E [US market close].

-(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +15 BCF VS. +19 BCF TO +21 BCF INDICATED RANGE [US market close].

-(US) Reportedly Trump Admin considers adding around 500M gallons to the 2027 biofuel quotas to offset small-refinery exemptions that will soon be announced - press.

-(US) Pres. Trump: Compliments Nvidia on Q2 results - Truth Social.

-(US) Former Fed's Miran (dovish dissenter): Don’t draw the wrong conclusion from Treasury yields – FT Op-Ed [update].

-(US) Pres. Trump: Jonathan Hunt of FoxNews did a particularly inaccurate report on the Failing Islamic Republic of Ira... - post on Truth Social.

-(US) NVDA Reportedly Nvidia has paused revenue sharing deals with AI cloud companies after employees expressed concerns it could draw antitrust scrutiny - WSJ.

-(US) PYPL Advent, Stripe consortium reportedly said to drop pursuit of PayPal - Us financial press.

-(VE) Venezuela evaluates leaving OPEC - US financial press.

-(MX) Mexico prices ¥282.8B multi-tranche "Samurai" bonds.

Europe

-(EU) ECB ACCOUNT OF JULY RATE DECISION (AKA MINUTES): Incoming data provided a strong case for a pause in rate hikes [EU market close].

-(RU) Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Russia's response to Ukrainian strikes on Russia's economic and trade infrastructure will be harsh [EU market close].

-(DE) Germany Sept GfK Consumer Confidence: -26.6 v -29.5e.

-(UK) Aug Lloyds Business Barometer: 53 v 49 prior.

-(IE) Ireland Aug Consumer Confidence: 63.2 v 61.6 prior.

-(FI) Finland Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.2% prior.

-(FI) Finland July GDP Indicator Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.9% prior.

Middle East

-(IR) CENTCOM Commander: International shipping lanes are open; confirms successfully cleared sea mines laid in Strait of Hormuz - post on X [video].

-(IR) White House is reportedly not interested in renewing the June MOU deal with Iran - WSJ [US market close].

-(IR) Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson: To remain engaged to resolve Middle East crisis [EU market close].

-(IR) Pakistan and Kuwait have reportedly signed a defense agreement to significantly enhance existing military cooperation framework - Pakistan Defence Ministry [EU market close].

-(IR) Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic moves below the 10-day avg; cites shipping data; 7 commodity vessels transited the strait on Thurs v 17 prior – financial press.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.5%; ASX 200 +0.5%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi -1.5%.

Equity S&P500 Futures -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.3%; DAX +0.4%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

EUR 1.1656-1.1643; JPY 159.56-159.30; AUD 0.7205-0.7190; NZD 0.5966-0.5945.

Gold -0.4% at $4,585/oz; BTC +1.0% at $79,643; WTI Crude Oil -0.3% at $83.24/bbl; Copper +0.1% at $6.6003/lbs.