Finally, an upside day

USD: Sep '26 is Down at 100.135.

Energies: Oct '26 Crude is Down at 90.72.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 9 ticks and trading at 107.27.

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 2 ticks Lower and trading at 7833.00.

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4356.50.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down.  All of Asia traded Higher.    All of Europe is trading Higher as well.  

Possible challenges to traders 

• ADP Weekly Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST.    Major.
• Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST.    Major.
• FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 10:05 AM EST.    Major.
• FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 10:20 AM EST.     Major.
• FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 1 PM EST.   Major.                          

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real news pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday our bias was to the upside, and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow closed Higher by 366 points and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Mixed or Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

As the saying goes " what comes down must come up" and yesterday the markets seemed to follow that saying.  The markets finally went Higher as eventually it would.