Fed raises

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 100.040.

Energies: Oct '26 Crude is Down at 93.55.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 19 ticks and trading at 107.20.

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 206 ticks Higher and trading at 7764.00.

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4384.50.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down.  All of Asia traded Higher.    All of Europe is trading Higher as well.  

Possible challenges to traders 

• No Major economic news to speak of.
• Lack of major economic news.                           

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT dived Lower at around 7:30 AM EST with no real news pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 7:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

On Friday the markets traded Mixed. The Dow shred 95 points, but the other indices gained on the session. Today our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

So the markets had to think about the Fed hiking rates if only by a quarter point but the thinking is they will raise again before the year is out. I hope that is not the case but as in all things, only time will tell.