EURUSD: 1.0766
The Euro came under pressure today , catching up with an earlier fall in Sterling ahead of the signing of Article 50, but with the Euro also not helped by a firm dollar, underpinned by some more strong US data that suggests we should expect further rate hikes in the not too distant future.
The 4 hour momentum indicators are still pointing lower, and below the session low of 1.0740 it could be that we now see a test of 1.0700/1.0690, below which further losses would take the Euro towards 1.0650. On the topside, minor resistance lies at 1.0800 ahead of the session high of 1.0826. Beyond there may be tricky today but further offers would then arrive at the 200 DMA at 1.0875. Further out, back above here could return to the 27 Mar high (1.0906), beyond which further offers would arrive at around 1.0930/35. The daily momentum appear to be running out of steam on the topside, and following today’s move lower they may now be rolling over so a more cautious stance is required, although at this stage the weeklies still look mildly positive. For the time being, selling rallies is mildly preferred, with a SL placed above the session high (1.0826) but looking for a run to 1.0700, possibly lower.
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.0932 | (61.8% of 1.1299/1.0340) | 1.0740 | Session low |
| 1.0906 | 27 Mar high | 1.0700 | (50% of 1.0494/1.1906) |
| 1.0875 | 200 DMA | 1.0688 | (38.2% of 1.0343/1.0906) |
| 1.0826 | Session high | 1.0650 | (61.8% of 1.0494/1.1906) |
| 1.0795 | 200 HMA | 1.0588 | (76.4% of 1.0494/1.1906) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Import/Export Index, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, German Provisional CPI/HICP, US GDP (Q4), US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Jobless Claims, Fed’s Kaplan/Williams Speeches.
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