EURUSD – Expect a Quiet Day as US Closed for Presidents’ Day

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The euro has paused on Monday, after strong losses on Friday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2420, up 0.08% on the day. On the release front, the eurozone current account surplus narrowed to EUR 29.9 billion, short of the estimate of EUR 30.5 billion. There are no US indicators, as US markets are closed for Presidents’ Day. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment and the eurozone will publish releases Consumer Confidence.

The euro lost close to 1% on Friday, as the US posted sharp housing and consumer confidence reports. Building Permits jumped to 1.40 million in January, up from 1.30 million in December. This easily beat the estimate of 1.29 million. Housing Starts followed suit and improved to 1.33 million in January, up from 1.19 million a month earlier. This was well above the forecast of 1.28 million. There was more positive news from consumer confidence, as UoM Consumer Confidence climbed to 99.9, well above the estimate of 95.4 points. This marked a 4-month high.

The recent turbulence in the global stock markets has triggered strong volatility in the currency markets, and ECB President Mario Draghi recently stated that the ECB was concerned about the euro’s sharp fluctuations. Last week, Draghi weighed in on Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency which has seen wild fluctuations in recent months. There are growing calls for regulation of these currencies, and central banks could play a key role in such regulation. However, Draghi poured cold water on any ECB involvement, saying that it was not the ECB’s responsibility to ban or regulate Bitcoin. Draghi added that the ECB was exploring the use of blockchain, a digital technology to monitor bitcoin transactions.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

4:00 Eurozone Current Account. Estimate 30.5B. Actual 29.9B
All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
6:00 German Buba Monthly Report
5:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 16.5
5:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 28.4
10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Estimate 1

Open: 1.2410 High: 1.2435 Low: 1.2387 Close: 1.2420

EUR/USD Technical

S1	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2200	1.2286	1.2357	1.2481	1.2569	1.2660

EUR/USD posted slight gains but retracted in the Asian session. The pair is showing little movement in European trade

1.2357 is providing support
1.2481 switched to resistance role after sharp losses by the pair on Friday

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.2357, 1.2286 and 1.2200
Above: 1.2481, 1.2569, 1.2660 and 1.2751
Current range: 1.2357 to 1.2481

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.