European resilience, American vigour

Eurozone growth continues to prove resilient, notwithstanding the volatility of the Irish figures. The Q3 data reinforce our forecast of 1.1% growth this year, which could even be slightly exceeded, as German and Spanish momentum shows no sign of fading. In France, the negative surprise (-0.1% q/q against a consensus of +0.1% q/q) stems from a new one-off factor (the sharp fall in aerospace output caused by delays in input deliveries) and masks an encouraging rebound in household consumption. In the United States, growth reached its highest level since Q2 2025 (0.8% q/q), driven by buoyant private domestic demand.

Eurozone: The resilience of growth is confirmed

Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in Q3 according to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate, above both the consensus and our Nowcast (0.3%). The ever-volatile Irish figures contributed 0.2 pp to this outcome. Excluding Ireland, growth (0.2% q/q) nonetheless remains in line with the pace of recent quarters (0.2-0.3% q/q on average). This illustrates the Eurozone's capacity to withstand the current shocks, thanks in particular to the strength of Spain (+0.07 pp contribution to the q/q change in Eurozone’s GDP) and the Netherlands (+0.04 pp), and to Germany's gradual recovery (+0.06 pp). France (-0.03 pp) and Italy (zero growth), by contrast, posted disappointing results, although in France's case these partly reflect temporary factors (aerospace output). The growth carry-over for 2026 now stands at 1.0%, which supports our forecast of 1.1% in annual average terms and even points to upside risk. The European Commission's October surveys remain upbeat, with a further improvement in industrial activity expectations.

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