EUR/USD outlook: Larger bears may take a breather before probing through 2026 low

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

The Euro trades near 2026 low (1.1410) on Friday, holding in red for the third straight day, in reaction to hawkish signals from Fed (the pair has registered the biggest daily loss since 30 July 2025 on Wednesday, following Fed’s hawkish hold).

The price neared YTD low on Friday, but subsequent bounce that created long tail on daily candle signals that bears started to face increased headwinds on approach to significant support.

This may lead to scenario of consolidation / limited correction, as oversold conditions and end of the week could spark partial profit taking.

Overall structure remains firmly bearish on daily chart (reinforced by the latest 100/200 DMA bear cross), suggesting that bears may take a breather to position for a fresh push lower.

Broken 1.1500 support (former base / round-figure) reverted to initial resistance, followed by falling 10DMA (1.1536) which should ideally cap upticks.

Firm break of 1.1410 (2026 low) and 1.1355 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0177/1.2082 rally) would generate a strong bearish signal and open way for deeper correction of Jan 2025 / Jan 2026 ascend.

Res: 1.1500; 1.1536; 1.1578; 1.1620.
Sup: 1.1410; 1.1355; 1.1283; 1.1215.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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