EUR/USD outlook: Hits new 2025 highs as expectations for dovish Fed continue to fuel demand

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EURUSD continues to benefit from weakening dollar and accelerated gains on Tuesday, to hit new 2025 highs, after showing a minor and short-lived negative reaction to upbeat US economic data today (retail sales and industrial production).

Positive sentiment was fueled by expectations that the Fed would keep dovish stance after widely expected rate cut on Wednesday.

The US policymakers have already signaled that support to weakening labor market through policy easing has priority against still elevated inflation, which they see as transitory, with current monetary policy being restrictive enough to curb inflationary pressures.

Firmly bullish daily studies (strengthening positive momentum / MAs in full bullish setup) add to positive outlook.

Violation of former 2025 peak (1.1830) is generating initial signal of bullish continuation of larger uptrend from 2025 low (1.0177) which was paused for 1.1830/1.1391 (July 1 / Aug 1 correction).

Sustained break above 1.1830 to confirm the signal and expose targets at 1.1935 (Fibo 123.6% projection), 1.2000 (psychological / Fibo 138.2%) and 1.2019 (bear-trendline connecting tops of 2018 and 2021).

Res: 1.1900; 1.1935; 1.2000; 1.2019

Sup: 1.1830; 1.1780; 1.1757; 1.1726

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD flat lines near 1.1800 as traders brace for US PPI release

The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note near 1.1800 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair steadies as softer Eurozone inflation offsets US tariff uncertainties. Traders await the preliminary reading of the Consumer Price Index from Germany on Friday for more clues about the pace of future policy easing. On the US front, the Producer Price Index report will be released.

GBP/USD threatens the 200-day SMA near 1.3440

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, coming under heavy pressure and retesting the 1.3440 zone, where the critical 200-day SMA is located. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold remains below $5,200 despite tariff jitters and geopolitical risks

Gold is seen consolidating in a range below the $5,200 mark during the Asian session on Friday amid mixed cues. Trade jitters, along with the risk of a potential US-Iran war, act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish outlook keeps the US Dollar close to the monthly high and caps the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register gains for the fourth straight week, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for bullish traders.

Top Crypto Gainers: Stable and Decred rally, Pippin approaches record highs

Altcoins, such as Stable, Decred, and Pippin, are extending gains so far this week, defying the risk-averse conditions in the broader cryptocurrency market. Stable and Pippin are near record high levels, while Decred extends its breakout rally above $30.

Changing the game: International implications of recent tariff developments

The Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs provides limited relief for the rest of the world, with weighted average tariff rates modestly lower.

Bitcoin steadies as traders eye US–Iran talks

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing around $68,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after a 6.2% relief rally the previous day amid a broader downward trend.