Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EUR/USD
EURUSD stays in a quiet mode early Thursday as traders reduced speed ahead of key event of the day – ECB policy decision.
The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%, after June’s 0.25% rate cut.
With today’s cut being almost certain, markets turn focus towards ECB’s next steps, looking for the dynamics of ECB’s action in the near future.
While some expect the central bank to deliver another 25 basis points cut in October, arguing that inflation continues to ease and is near 2% target and economic growth is anemic, with no significant changes in economic picture expected, others point to persisting inflation risk which requires cautious approach.
This fits within ECB’s mantra that any future decision will be based on incoming data and taken meeting by meeting.
Near-term price action is in a sideways mode for the second day and holding just above pivotal 1.10 support zone (psychological / Fibo 38.2% of 1.0666/1.1201).
Technical picture is weakening as the price broke below MA’s (10/20-d) and bearish momentum is strengthening, with long upper shadow on Wednesday’s candlestick pointing to strong supply.
Dovish comments from ECB policymakers would raise pressure on euro, with firm break of 1.10 to open way for deeper pullback towards 1.0947/33 (55DMA / 50% retracement), guarding the top of rising daily cloud (1.0893).
Conversely, the single currency may receive fresh boost from more hawkish ECB’s stance, with lift above daily Tenkan-sen (1.1078) to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.1051; 1.1078; 1.1091; 1.1119.
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0947; 1.0933; 1.0893.
Interested in EUR/USD technicals? Check out the key levels
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD strengthens above 1.1600 on risk-on mood
The EUR/USD pair edges higher to around 1.1615 during the early European session on Wednesday. The improved risk sentiment provides some support to the Euro against the Greenback. Traders will take more cues from the Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell testifies later on Wednesday.
GBP/USD holds gains above 1.3600 due to improved risk appetite
GBP/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.3620 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair is hovering around 1.3648, the highest since February 2022, which was recorded on Tuesday. The risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair receives support from the improved risk appetite amid easing tensions in the Middle East.
Gold price struggles to lure buyers as easing Middle East tensions offsets weaker USD
Gold price edges higher as Fed rate cut bets keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Doubts over the durability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire also support the commodity. Traders look forward to this week’s important US macro data for a fresh impetus.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple eye key breakouts
Bitcoin price continued to trade in green on Wednesday, having risen 5% over the previous two days. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps and rallied, approaching their key resistance levels, where a breakout would suggest further upside moves.
Could Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Why Oil is on edge after US strikes
As the Israel-Iran conflict reaches new heights, an old threat is coming back to haunt the markets: that of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow arm of the sea in the Persian Gulf, wedged between Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south, is much more than a simple sea passage.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.