EUR/USD in focus as markets weigh the attack on the Fed’s independence

Phaedros Pantelides Independent Analyst

EUR/USD daily chart

Support: 1.1615 (S1), 1.1515 (S2), 1.1405 (S3).

Resistance: 1.1685 (R1), 1.1815 (R2), 1.1917 (R3).

On a technical level, EUR/USD appears to be retracing back to our support now turned to resistance at the 1.1685 (R1) level. The pair had appeared to be moving in an upwards fashion, as can be seen by the price action where the pair took aim for our 1.1815 (R2) level, yet when it failed to clear our aforementioned resistance level the bears took over control, pushing the pair to lower ground and clearing our support turned to resistance at the 1.1685 (R1) level. Hence, we would now opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case would be the MACD and RSI indicator which tend to imply a bearish market sentiment, whilst the ADX with DI indicator has yet to showcase a clear bearish or bullish indication. Furthermore, using the Ichimiku indicator on our chart we can distinguish that the base line (Red line) has crossed above our conversion line (blue line) which tends to imply a bearish signal, which could further aid our bearish outlook. However, as our reader has probably figured out, we still have our upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 5th of November 2025 that still remains intact. Therefore, for our bearish outlook to be maintained we would require a clear break below our 1.1615 (S1) support level, if not also our upwards moving trendline with the next possible target for the bears being our 1.1515 (S2) support line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above our 1.1685 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 1.1815 (R2) resistance line. Lastly, for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between our 1.1685 (S1) support line and our 1.1685 (R1) resistance level. On a fundamental level, we should note that the continued attacks by the US Government on the Fed’s independence could erode confidence in the dollar, which could lead to the greenback losing some ground against its counterparts.

Author

Phaedros Pantelides

Independent Analyst

Mr Pantelides has graduated from the University of Reading with a degree in BSc Business Economics, where he discovered his passion for trading and analyzing global geopolitics.

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