EUR/USD Forecast: Steep downtrend maintained on non-stop flow of EZ disappointments

The EUR/USD started the first full week of May by resuming its falls, trading around $1.1930. While the US Dollar is slightly stronger against some currencies, the pair's fall is also related to further weak euro-zone data.

German Factory Orders came out with a drop of 0.9% MoM in March against a rise of 0.5% that was expected. Year over year, the indicator rose by only 3.1% against 5% projected. This is a data point for March that saw the bad weather. Easter also came out at this month, earlier than usual.

However, excuses are running out.

The fresh Sentix Investor Confidence survey for May showed a drop from 19.6 to 19.2 points, worse than a recovery to 21.1 that was on the cards. On Friday, Markit's Services PMI was significantly downgraded for Germany on Friday. Bigger worries come from GDP that slowed down to 0.4% QoQ in Q1 2018 after 0.6% in Q4 2017. Inflation also fell short of expectations with 1.2% YoY on the headline and 0.7% QoQ on the core in the preliminary read for April.

The jury remains out on the question of the "moderation" as ECB President Mario Draghi called it. Weather, Easter, and strikes may have been behind the Q1 slowdown but the second quarter does not necessarily consist of an improvement. 

In the US, King Dollar may be facing his own troubles. The Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed on the headline, only 164,000 against 192,000 expected and also on wages. Average Hourly Earnings increased by only 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both 0.1% below predictions. 

While the Fed is still expected to raise interest rates in June, some of the momentum has gone. The US Dollar is not making the same significant gains against all currencies. The biggest test for the greenback comes on Thursday with the Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to show a slowdown:1.9% instead of 2.1% on the all-important Core CPI.

In the meantime, a Bank Holiday in the UK means somewhat lower liquidity and slower movements across the board. When US traders join, will they resume the US Dollar rally or are doubts creeping in? That remains an open question. No Kingdom lasts forever and King Dollar of recent weeks may also lose its throne once a contender comes along. The Euro is, at least for now, far from posing a challenge.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is trading within a steep downtrend channel as the thick black lines on the chart demonstrate. The pair may exit the channel just by trading sideways for a relatively short period, but the downtrend is quite strong.

Immediate support awaits at $1.1910 which was the low point on May 4th. $1.1915 was the trough in January, making this a double-bottom. The next line to watch is $1.1820 which was a support line on December 22nd, 2017. Even lower, $1.1710 is a veteran line on the downside. 

Looking up, the round level of $1.2000 is still relevant as a psychological barrier. Quite close by, $1.2016 is the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The April 30th low of $1.2055 is next.

More: EUR/USD faces very tough resistance and will have a tough time recovering — Confluence Detector