EUR/USD Forecast: Bears maintain control ahead of FOMC Minutes

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0640

The Federal Open Market Committee will release the Minutes of its latest meeting.
Germany confirmed the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices at 9.2% YoY.
EUR/USD is at risk of falling further as sellers continue to pressure the monthly low.

The EUR/USD pair trades near its February monthly low at 1.0612, as risk aversion keeps benefiting the US Dollar. Following Wall Street’s sharp decline on Tuesday, Asian and European equities edged lower, maintaining the red ahead of the US opening. Geopolitical tensions continue to undermine the market mood as China escalated the bet, with a top local diplomat claiming they would deepen strategic cooperation with Russia. Also, signs that US inflation will take longer to reach the Federal Reserve’s 2% target weight on sentiment, as it means monetary tightening will continue longer than previously estimated.

Data-wise, Germany confirmed the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at 9.2% YoY. The country’s February IFO survey on Business Climate, however, missed the market expectations as the index printed at 91.1 vs the 91.4 expected. January reading, in the meantime, was downwardly revised to 90.1. The American session will bring the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The document will likely reaffirm the central bank’s hawkish stance and further dent the market mood.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair favors another leg south. The pair is developing below a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps approaching a static resistance level at 1.0745, the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 yearly decline, further reinforcing its relevance. At the same time, technical indicators remain within negative levels, reflecting sellers’ strength although falling short of hinting at a steeper decline amid their lack of directional strength. Finally, a bullish 100 SMA currently stands at 1.0425, too far from being relevant at the time being.

The 4-hour chart shows that the upside is limited by a mildly bearish 20 SMA, which stands far below the longer ones. The 100 SMA extended its bearish slope and currently stands a few pips above the aforementioned Fibonacci level, making it even more relevant. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator heads lower within negative levels while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 40, all of which maintain the risk skewed to the downside.

Support levels: 1.0610 1.0570 1.0525

Resistance levels: 1.0700 1.0745 1.0790

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold extends gains nearing $4,200 as US Dollar struggles

Gold heads north for the second consecutive day, trading near $4,180, with bulls aiming for the $4,230 area, the top of October’s trading range. Precious metals have been boosted by lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials this week, which have undermined speculative support for the Greenback.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?

Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.

Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets

Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.