EUR to take its cue from US economic events in next few weeks
The euro has continued to hold its own around the 1.16 level on the dollar so far this week. Thus far, at least, the common currency has managed to outperform its higher-beta major peers, which have edged lower amid the broad sell-off in equity markets, fuelled by bets that the AI bubble may be ready to burst (or deflate at least).
This morning’s Euro Area inflation report will be overlooked given that it is merely a revision from the initial estimate and, at any rate, this will have little bearing on the ECB, which appears dead set to keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future.
EUR/USD will instead take its cue from the expected dump of economic data out of the US in the next few weeks, as the backlog is cleared following the government shutdown. A handful of speeches from ECB officials are on the docket this week but, again, these are unlikely to rock the boat given the lack of appetite for more policy cuts within the Governing Council.
Author
Matthew Ryan, CFA
Ebury
Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.
