Equities extend cautious gains

Asia market update: Equities extend cautious gains; CN trade data misses amid higher imports and energy price impact; Focal points for the US include CPI data and UST auction; TSMC to release monthly sales.

General trends and developments

- Equities in Asia have again tracked the earlier advances on Wall St. Headlines regarding Anthropic’s IPO and Nvidia’s CEO have remained prevalent. SoftBank Group is due to report results after the Tokyo close.

- IPO confusion: Anthropic’s anticipated IPO remains subject to uncertainty after the company informed bankers that the previously circulated filing sent to them was incorrect, that the pricing was inaccurate, and that it would update the filing later. The previously circulated filing indicated a price range of $70-80/share for ~866.67M Class A shares, at gross proceeds worth $69.3B.

- Nvidia remains vulnerable to headline risks related to its CEO: As a follow-up from yesterday’s Nvidia news, the Information reported that the White House is considering new export controls on Nvidia’s advanced chips. Meanwhile, Nvidia and CEO Huang were sued in a proposed class action over alleged fraud against shareholders by concealing his relationship with a suspected Chinese spy [press].

- Oil FUTS have extended declines in Asia with the recent focus on the diplomatic efforts regarding Iran. WTI Crude and Brent Oil FUTs re-opened +0.3% to $86.59/bbl (vs. $86.37/bbl prior) and flat to $92.12/bbl (vs. $92.19/bbl prior) respectively. After the NY close, US President Trump affirmed he is prepared to resume military action against Iran but "that seems to be quite unlikely". These comments were made following a meeting with the Qatari PM. Even still risks remain. A US aircraft was evacuated from a second UK base due to Iran threat, according to the WSJ. Specifically, the US evacuated an aircraft from RAF Mildenhall in the UK today [Monday] following a threat from Iran.

- Cautious voices were heard in the BOJ’s Oct policy meeting’s Summary of Opinions amid hawkish dissent; Financial markets keep BOJ OIS volatile: In the Oct policy statement the BOJ had already noted that risks would be taken into account when assessing rate hike timing. One board member added the need to pay attention to the risk that future rate hikes will hurt the economy and push down inflation while a separate member stated that risks of second-round effects emerging is not high, according to the Oct Summary of Opinions. Further, the central bank examined risks including exogenous shocks and changes in the business cycle. There is also some weakness in the domestic economy, said another board member.

- Financial conditions were a factor in the Oct monetary policy discussion as board members examined asset prices. For example, the rise in stock prices has been mainly led by the global expansion in AI-related demand, and it is thus necessary to bear in mind that factors other than monetary policy could also significantly change the situation in these prices, the summary of opinions revealed. Amid Takata’s hawkish dissent at the policy meeting, one member indicated that the BoJ should raise interest rates again to help balance the overall economy.

- Given the varying opinions on the BOJ’s board, it is not surprising that near-term BOJ rate hike probabilities have remained volatile since the Oct meeting, especially with the recent financial stability concerns related to tech stocks and investment.

- As the BOJ looks to balance the economy, monthly retail sales and overall household spending figures have continued to surprise to the downside. September Household Spending contracted for the 10th straight month, as the data showed the largest decline since the pandemic [Sept 2020]. Drivers of the data included the impact of adverse weather conditions and inflation. Energy and water bill spending declined by >10% y/y. Recall, the local government in Tokyo implemented a temporary summer program to provide relief for certain water charges. Incidentally, inflation in Japan has continued to impact the corporate results of consumer firms. Kikkoman, for example, issued cautious guidance after Monday’s close.

- Softer demand was seen at today’s 30-year JGB auction as equity markets/tech shares have shown some stability in recent days. Recall on Fri, Japan’s GPIF [world largest pension fund] disclosed that its end of Q2 domestic bond allocation was 26.49% v 25.59% q/q. The increase was, however, attributed to one-off factors.

- During today’s session, China’s Department of the General Administration of Customs released its October Trade Balance, coming in at a trade surplus of +$105.3B (=CNY712.8B) vs. +$134.9B (=CNY900.0B) m/m. Exports increased to 35.2% (vs. 36.9%e in the $-denominated figures) and imports increased to 41.6% (vs. 33.6%e in the $-denominated figures), the fastest increase in imports since 2021. The decline in overall trade balance was predominantly due to an increase in crude oil imports at 41.9M tonnes (vs. 37.1M tonnes prior), its highest level since March 2026. Chinese markets were closed in October 1st-7th for the National Day Golden Week holiday.

- US equity FUTs -0.1% to +0.2% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

- Sun November 8th: (Sun night, JP Oct FX Reserves - USD, AU Sept Building Approvals, CN Oct CPI & PPI, PH Q3 GDP, ID Oct Consumer Confidence, JP Sept Prelim Leading Index, TW Oct Trade Balance).

- Mon November 9th: DE Sept Trade Balance, EU ECOFIN & Eurogroup Meetings, MX Oct CPI & PPI, PH Oct FX Reserves - USD, CO Oct CPI, (Mon night, AU Nov Westpac Consumer Sentiment, JP Sept Household Spending, JP Oct Current Account & Adj Current Account, JP BoJ Oct 29-30th Summary of Opinions, AU Oct NAB Business Confidence, ID Sept Retail Sales, JP 30-Year JGB Auction, MY Sept Industrial Production).

- Tue November 10th: NL Oct CPI & Sept Manufacturing Production, FR Q3 Unemployment Rate, BR BCB Nov 3-4th Copom Meeting Minutes, US Oct CPI & Core CPI, CN Oct Trade Balance & Trade Balance - USD, US WASDE Report, US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, US 10-Year Note Auction, CA BOC Oct 28th Summary of Deliberations, NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report, (Tue night, KR Oct Unemployment Rate, AU Q3 Home Loans, MY Sept Unemployment Rate).

- Wed November 11th: NL Sept Trade Balance, DE Oct CPI, US OPEC Monthly Report, MX Sept Industrial Production, RU Sept Trade Balance, (Wed night, JP Oct PPI, AU Nov MI Inflation Expectations, JP 5-Year JGB Auction, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

- Thu November 12th: UK Q3 Preliminary GDP & Sept Industrial Production & Trade Balance, EU ECB Economic Bulletin & Economic Forecasts, IN Oct CPI, DE Sept Current Account, BR Oct CPI, RU Central Bank Reserves - USD, US Initial Jobless Claims, US 30-Year Bond Auction, (Thu night, KR Oct Export & Import Price Index, NZ Oct Business PMI, KR Sept M2 & M3 Money Supply, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

- Fri November 13th: FR Oct CPI, ES Oct CPI, HK Q3 GDP, PL Q3 Preliminary GDP & Oct CPI, US IEA Monthly Report, CN Oct New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock, EU Q3 Prelim GDP & Employment Change & Sept Trade Balance, EU Leaders Summit, US Oct PPI & Core PPI, CA Sept Capacity Utilization Rate & Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales, CO Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales, RU Q3 Prelim GDP & Oct CPI.

- Sat November 14th: (Sat night, KR Oct Trade Balance).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon November 9th: Malaysia.

- Tue November 10th: India.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- (AU) ASX 200 Index opens +0.8% at 9,098.

- (AU) Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence: -15 v -14 prior.

- (AU) Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 78.2 v 80.4 prior.

- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 63.1 v 66.2 prior - update.

- (AU) Australia PM Albanese: Announces mandatory AI safety and security protections. Australia to create AI safety regulator. AI protections will be regulated by a new targeted AI safety regulator - Canberra, Australia.

- (NZ) RBNZ’s Conway (chief economist): domestic Inflation is too high and see two-ways risks around the 4.4% forecast; MPC agreed to need to raise rates further. - Conference Speech; Sustained NZ$ depreciation is adding to inflation; Labor data wouldn't have changed OCR vote.

China/Hong Kong

- (CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens +0.6% at 3,682; (HK) Hang Seng Index opens +0.7% at 24,621.

- (CN) China Oct trade balance: $105.3B V $125.9BE (imports increase at the fastest pace since 2021).

- (CN) China Oct trade balance (CNY-denominated): 712.8B V 900.0B PRIOR; Crude Oil Imports: 41.9Mt v 37.1Mt m/m (crude oil imports at its highest level since March this year).

- (US) Trump commented on Nvidia CEO Huang: He is a high quality person, I believe he is suffering greatly; Was amazed by the allegations, and FBI is looking into it.

- (CN) China chip-related stock rise in Hong Kong:20:25:00(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens +0.6% at 3,68220:20:38(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY190B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo; Net injects CNY8B v drains CNY44B prior.

- (CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7167 v 6.7188 prior.

- (CN) China Finance Ministry (MOF) releases statement on discussions with Canada: China, Canada sign MOU on financial cooperation.

- (CN) China Vice Premier Lifeng: China and Canada have reached agreements in economic talks; Discussed extending tariff exemption measures with Canada; Has discussed quotas for EVs with Canada.

- WuXi Apptec [2359.HK]; Statement: Removal of Wuxi Apptec as a Chinese military company under section 1260H list.

- Fitch downgrades Zhuhai Huafa Group to BB+ [junk] from BBB; retains Watch Negative; The two-notch downgrade reflects Fitch's lower assessment of both Zhuhai municipality's capacity to provide support for Huafa and the likelihood of government support.

Japan

- (JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +0.9% at 59,268.

- (JP) Japan BoJ summary of opinions: Next hike to help balance overall economy.; One member said appropriate to maintain policy to look at risks surrounding economy, prices a bit more.

- (JP) Japan sells ¥600b vs. ¥600b indicated in 30-yearJGB bonds; AVG yield: 3.8470% v 4.1090% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.36x v 3.88x prior.

- (JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: BoJ estimated to make ¥1.00T from faster ETF sales; nothing decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs, leave debate to the LDP; panel largely welcomed with retail JGB plan - Tokyo, Japan.

- (JP) Japan Sept Household Spending Y/Y: -6.8% v -3.0%e.

- (JP) Japan Oct Bank Lending Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior.

- (JP) Japan Sept Current Account Balance: ¥2.372T v ¥3.300Te; Trade Balance (BoP Basis): -¥187.5B v -¥225.8Be.

- (JP) Japan releases monthly flows data [period ended October]: Foreign net buying of Japan equities: ¥7.86T; Japan net buying of foreign bonds: ¥457.2B; Foreign net buying of Japan bonds [long-term debt securities]: ¥3.16T.

- Rapidus: Reportedly likely to miss mass production deadline - US financial press.

Korea

- (KR) Kospi Index opens +4.6% at 5,247.

- (KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar on Kospi following Kospi 200 FUTs rising by +5%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

- (KR) South Korea Cabinet approves extension of Cheonghae unit - Yonhap [ **Reminder Nov 5th: (KR) South Korea's Cheonghae Navy Unit to expand operations into sea near Strait of Hormuz – Yonhap; The article comments on preparations for the possibility of international participation in mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz that could begin after the end of the US and Iran wars].

- (KR) South Korea President Lee: Seoul must build cooperation with US congress and widen communication with US state governments - Cabinet Meeting.

- (KR) South Korea Vice Science Minister: Watching possibility US AI data center investment could shift to South Korea [Nov 9th].

Other Asia

- (MY) Malaysia Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.3% v 5.6%e.

- (SG) Singapore's Interbank Rate advances by +11.69bps to 1.7446%, highest level since July 2025.

- (TW) TSM Reports Oct Rev (NT$) 586.89B v 367.5B y/y (v 511.9B m/m).

North America

- Anthropic [ANT]: Follow up: Anthropic tells bankers IPO filing sent to them was incorrect, company will update with new figures - US financial press.

- Anthropic [ANT]: Targets $69.3B in IPO through primaries, at range of $70-80/share; To offer ~866.67M Class A shares in IPO; Cornerstone investors will sell ~23.33M share in the IPO; Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, TSMC to invest $26B through private placement at IPO price.

- Nvidia [NVDA] (US) White House considering new export controls on Nvidia's advance chips - The Information.

- Nvidia [NVDA]: Nvidia and CEO Huang sued in proposed class action over alleged fraud against shareholders by concealing his relationship with a suspected Chinese spy - press.

- (US) ANTHROPIC.IPO Anthropic Unveils new Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 AI models ahead of upcoming IPO - press [US market close].

- Google [GOOGL]: Rolling out two new versions of TPU SYSTEMS, expanding efforts to compete with Nvidia products (Tensor Processing Unit designed specifically for machine learning, mainly for training and running neural networks) - press.

- (US) Fed’s Barkin (non-voter): Risk lies on the inflation side of the dual mandate; Direction of monetary policy is 'straightforward,' but it's best to move policy 'with care'; Layoffs remained muted [US market close].

- (US) Treasury $58b 3-year note auction results: draws 4.627% v 4.932% prior; BTC: 2.53x v 2.62x prior and 2.62 over the last 9 auctions [US market close].

- (US) Pres. Trump: Questions the results of the midterms - Truth Social [US market close].

- (US) Senator Warren said to propose credit card interest rate cap and advanced AI chip export restrictions - press [US market close].

- (MX) Mexico Oct CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e [US market close].

- (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 1.2% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.2%e [US market close].

Europe

- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Gov Bailey: It's no longer a luxury to assume that supply shocks will fade away.

- (US) Trump: We are having good conversations about Ukraine and Russia; reiterates military action against Iran does not seem necessary right now - comments to reporters.

Middle East

- (IR) Pres. Trump: Had excellent meeting with Qatar PM; Middle East partners prefer status quo of the naval blockade; Prepared to resume military action against Iran but "that seems to be quite unlikely"; Seeing positive momentum toward end of the conflict [post NY close].

- (IR) Reportedly Iran dropped its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz by collecting transit fees from vessels, but remains unwilling to discuss its nuclear program or even signal a willingness to enter negotiations on the issue - Israeli press [EU market close].

- (IR) Reportedly arrangements are being prepared to discuss return of IAEA inspectors to Iran - Al Arabiya sources.

- (IR) Qatari official: Reports on US-Iran proposal details are false; US-Iran negotiations ongoing.

Levels as of 01:20 am EDT

Nikkei 225 +2.8%; ASX 200 +1.1%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +4.4%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.1%; DAX +1.0%; FTSE100 +0.6%.

EUR 1.1233-1.1216; JPY 158.12-157.86; AUD 0.6930-0.6914; NZD 0.5643-0.5622.

Gold -0.4% at $4,124/oz; BTC +0.5% at $74,663; WTI Crude Oil -1.3% at $85.75/bbl; Copper -0.7% at $6.3343/lbs.