EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a three-month retracement, support at 1.1857-1.1352 made an entrance and inspired a bullish revival in April, up 2.4 percent at the close. Month-to-date action for May also currently trades higher by 1.1 percent. 

April upside—alongside May’s gains—throws light on the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks in the months ahead, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support [1.1641]). 

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price also breached trendline resistance, taken from the high 1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous report.

The dollar index (ticker: DXY) refreshed weekly lows on Tuesday, piercing 90.00 (albeit recovered a large portion of the day’s losses). EUR/USD action, however, remains toying with Quasimodo resistance at 1.2169.

A decisive 1.2169 rejection nudges the 1.1985 May 5th low in view, arranged just north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1947. Should further USD downside sponsor a EUR/USD bid, and we dethrone 1.2169, the technical radar firmly points in the direction of another Quasimodo resistance at 1.2278.

From the RSI indicator on the daily scale, the value rebounding from support at 51.36 last week, and reaching 65.00, threatens a possible visit to overbought, in particular resistance at 80.39.

As for trend, despite the 2021 retracement, the general bias remains to the upside (trending higher since early 2020). 

H4 timeframe:

Sellers welcomed Quasimodo resistance at 1.2180 on Tuesday and delivered lows of 1.2146 in recent hours. Yesterday’s session low at 1.2123 is on the radar, closely followed by support coming in at 1.2108. Movement above 1.2180, however, throws light on resistance around the 1.2222ish neighbourhood.

Beyond 1.2108 support, demand from 1.2044-1.2071 is likely to spark interest. Note this area, according to the H4 timeframe, represents a decision point to break through not only 1.2108, but also the 1.2150 top (April 29).

H1 timeframe:

1.2135 support provided a floor for buyers to work with on Tuesday. Although three downside attempts emerged, buyers were victorious (though failed to find acceptance above local tops around 1.2177).

As you can see, a modest phase of selling took shape during US trading, emphasising a possible 1.2135 retest. Should buyers regain consciousness and take 1.2177, the 1.2200 region is perhaps next on the list, in terms of resistance. 

Recent movement out of the RSI indicator shows the value shook hands with trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 16.20, and is now within close proximity of support at 47.50.

Observed levels:

H1 tops around 1.2177, coupled with H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.2180 and daily Quasimodo resistance at 1.2169 is a resistance combination to be mindful of. Whether it will attract enough downside pressure to overthrow H1 support at 1.2135 to approach 1.21 is difficult to estimate, knowing the monthly scale trades from demand at 1.1857-1.1352. 

The flip side to this, of course, is another attempt seen to secure a bullish presence off H1 support mentioned above 1.2135, drawing impetus from not only the current uptrend, but also monthly price structure (see above). 

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe: 

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been battling for position south of trendline resistance (prior support - 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082. Yet, with May trading 1.7 percent in positive territory, visiting the aforesaid areas could be on the table. 

Should a bearish scenario unfold, on the other hand, demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]). 

Daily timeframe: 

Technical structure unchanged from previous report.

AUD/USD derived modest bullish impetus from soft USD movement on Tuesday, despite a bout of risk aversion. As a result, Monday’s shooting star candle pattern (often interpreted as a bearish signal) has so far failed to prompt much bearish movement. 

Support at 0.7816 (a resistance level breached on Friday [capped upside since early March]) calls for attention to the downside, while buyers extending gains shines light on supply at 0.8045-0.7985 (stationed just south of monthly supply mentioned above at 0.8303-0.8082). 

The view within the RSI reveals the value remains above the 50.00 centreline—a sign of a strengthening trend—and appears poised to reach trendline resistance, extended from the high 80.12.

With respect to trend, despite a two-month retracement, we have been decisively higher since the early months of 2020.

H4 timeframe: 

As can be seen from the H4 chart, buyers and sellers went head-to-head north of support at 0.7816—the daily support level. 

Demand is seen positioned at 0.7759-0.7791 (decision point to break resistance at 0.7816 [now labelled support]); Resistance, on the other hand, is found at 0.7899.

H1 timeframe: 

Monday led the currency pair beneath 0.7850 support, which, as you can see, delivered resistance on Tuesday. 

Upstream, resistance at 0.7891 and the 0.79 figure are in sight, while price respecting 0.7850 shines the headlights on 0.78 (as well as the 100-hour SMA) and neighbouring demand at 0.7775-0.7787.

Tuesday’s limited volatility brought about slow movement on the RSI, yet the value remained buoyed off trendline support, drawn from the low 17.40.

Observed levels:

Having H1 test 0.7850 as resistance may guide price to daily support at 0.7816, with a possible dip into 0.78 bids (and H1 demand at 0.7775-0.7787) also on the cards. 

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe: 

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves) 

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66. 

Although April finished lower by 1.3 percent and snapped the three-month winning streak, May is attempting to hold the breached descending resistance, echoing potential support. 

Daily timeframe: 

Technical structure unchanged from previous report.

USD/JPY wrapped up Tuesday modestly in the red, driven amid risk aversion. Losses, however, appear to have been contained as US Treasury yields seized a bid. 

Trendline support, extended from the low 102.59, is a key line in this market, though remains clouded by supply at 109.97-109.18. 

Pushing beyond the aforementioned trendline support not only warns of upside weakness, it underlines demand at 107.58-106.85 (prior supply) and a 38.2% Fib level from 107.73 as potential downside objectives. North of 109.97-109.18, nevertheless, casts light towards longer-term resistance at 110.94-110.29, stationed under supply at 111.73-111.19. 

Trend studies show the unit has been trending higher since the beginning of 2021.

The RSI indicator crossed paths with resistance at 57.00 last week and is currently flirting with space just south of the 50.00 centreline. RSI support at 28.19 can be seen within oversold territory.

H4 timeframe:

Technical structure unchanged from previous report.

Support between 108.20 and 108.50 (made up of demand from 108.20-108.43, a 1.618% Fib expansion at 108.36, a 1.272% Fib projection at 108.48, and support at 108.50) and resistance placed at 108.99 echoes the beginning of a consolidation phase on the H4 scale.

Unseating the aforementioned support area emphasises continuation selling to support priced in at 107.44 (dovetails with a 1.272% Fib projection at 107.41). Charging above 108.99, on the other hand, highlights a 61.8% Fib level at 109.60, set beneath familiar supply at 109.97-109.72.

H1 timeframe:

Short-term flow on Tuesday, according to the H1 scale, chalked up a top a handful of pips south of 109 and subsequently printed a one-sided decline during the early hours of London. 

Buyers, as you can see, regained some balance after coming within a stone’s throw of support at 108.15-108.34 (glued to the underside of H4 demand at 108.20-108.43), extended from early March 2020.

The RSI value bottomed ahead of oversold waters in recent movement, though has yet to test the mettle of the 50.00 centreline. 

Observed levels:

H4 support between 108.20 and 108.50—joined by H1 support from 108.15-108.34 and daily trendline support—could drive a bullish theme, targeting the 109ish neighbourhood (109 on the H1, together with H4 resistance at 108.99 and the lower side of daily supply at 109.18).

 

GBP/USD: 

Monthly timeframe: 

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves) 

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. Contained within February’s range, however, March and April witnessed decreased volatility.

May, nonetheless, trades firmly on the front foot, up by 2.4 percent MTD. 

Despite the trendline breach (which could serve as possible support if retested), primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018). 

Daily timeframe: 

GBP/USD bulls remained in the driving seat on Tuesday (albeit with less vigour than Monday’s near-1 percent advance), movement which eclipsed resistance at 1.4003 (now labelled support). 

In line with the RSI value closing in on overbought space, price action is seen within striking distance of Quasimodo resistance at 1.4250. This level, therefore, could put a cap on upside. 

H4 timeframe:

Technical structure on the H4 scale shines the spotlight on 1.4162 resistance, a level welcoming sellers on Tuesday. Above here, technical studies reveal limited resistance until around daily Quasimodo resistance underlined above at 1.4250.

Should sellers make an appearance, demand at 1.4014-1.4045, alongside support plotted at 1.4007, are likely to be areas of interest. 

H1 timeframe:

Thanks to recent outperformance, Quasimodo resistance calls for attention at 1.4176, sheltered under the 1.42 figure. Lower on the curve, 1.41 may prompt support, yet a break here could signal moves back to the 1.40ish area. 

Movement from the RSI value shows we remain pointing to the downside, in terms of momentum. A 50.00 centreline cross—action indicating a weakening trend—could have oversold space tested, in particular support at 12.22.

Observed levels:

Monthly and daily timeframes effectively point to further buying.

The monthly timeframe shows a trendline resistance breach occurred late 2020. Should the 1.4376 top move aside, longer-term buying may become a key theme in this market. On the daily timeframe, scope to advance is seen until crossing swords with Quasimodo resistance at 1.4250.

With the above, H4 resistance at 1.4162 may be fragile, though bearish flow derived from this region could be enough to push for a 1.41 retest on the H1, movement that may draw in bullish interest. Breaking 1.4162, before connecting with 1.41, however, might also unlock short-term breakout buying towards 1.42 (H1) and perhaps 1.4250 Quasimodo resistance on the daily.

 


 

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