Don’t get taken by supplies

Summary

We are raising the warning flag now that trade-war dynamics have scope to influence supplier deliveries in such a way that it may be a less-than-perfect way to measure activity in both manufacturing and the service sector, at least for a time.

Supplies factor: Purchasing managers' dilemma

Uncertainty about trade policy can force some difficult choices. Across the business world, from retail merchants to producers of durable goods and even many parts of the service sector, someone is stuck with the job of figuring out what goods, raw materials or supplies will be needed in the short-, medium- and long-term. The past decade had already been challenging enough for these purchasing managers. They managed to navigate through a trend move away from globalization, a pandemic that snarled global supply chains and a rate environment that has made inventory financing more expensive. Yet, it turns out these challenges were merely a prelude to an even more vexing challenge: how to secure needed supplies, goods and inputs in the midst of an on-again, off-again trade war that has lifted the effective tariff rate to levels not seen in more than a half century.

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