Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data

U.S. Review

Despite Recent Price Drop, Oil Still Swaying Econ Data

• At the start of October, the WTI price for a barrel of oil was over $75. Since then it has been a mostly downward slide. This week it slipped below $60/barrel for the first time since February.
• A batch of October economic indicators this week, however, are still under the influence of the higher price dynamic in place at the start of the month. Lifted by higher energy costs, CPI inflation rose 0.3% in October. Retailers reported the biggest monthly sales increase since May, but gas stations saw the largest increase.

Global Review

Incoming Data Reinforce Slower Pace of Global Growth

• Data out of Asia were largely lackluster in nature this week. Japanese real GDP contracted in Q3, while several key indicators in China reinforce the fundamental slowdown occurring in its economy amid ongoing trade tensions.
• In the U.K., wage and price data were generally positive, although key developments on the Brexit front reinforce that the U.K. economy will likely face continued uncertainty in the coming months.
• Mexico’s central bank raised its policy rate in an attempt to combat currency depreciation in the wake of rising political uncertainty after the recent presidential election.

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