Currency market: EUR/USD, GBP, AUD, CAD, CNY fix

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

EUR/USD shorts remain protected below 1.1721 anf for today from long term forecasts, 1.1620 an 1.1665 remain vital breaks for higher. Today's vital upper points are located at 1.1671 to target 1.1701 then short. Bottoms target 1.1582 and 1.1596. Yesterday's EUR/USD dropped from 1.1668 to 1.1616 lows.

GBP/USD 1.3840 dropped yesterday from 1.3832 to 1.3719. Today's day trade highs are located at 1.3847 and 1.3856 to bump against vital 1.3840. Lows are found at 1.3733 and 1.3716.

AUD/USD tops today are located at 0.7524 and 0.7519. Then short. Weekly shorts begin at 0.7495. AUD/USD Lows today are located at 0.7448 and 0.7457. Then long.

Deeply oversold USD/CAD maintains big break at 1.2351 and traded 1.2408 and 1.2312 or 96 pip range in the last 4 trade days. Today's top is located at 1.2416 and 1.2408 vs bottoms at 1.2292 and 1.2297.

While USD/CAD maintains deeply oversold status, EUR/USD sits neutral for any prices in the 1.1600's.

USD/CNY

USD/CNY Fix as written for yesterday reported 6.4354 and 6.4329 for 24 hours ahead. The ECB today informed 6.3890, a miss by 439 pips. The ECB changed the rules of the road for the day and its not unusual.

The 6.3890 Fix was derived from USD/CNH about 30 minutes prior to the ECB release. If USD/CNH was factored 30 minutes prior to ECB then a miss was realized at most 55 pips. Overall, 6.3890 was an impossible number to obtain for USD/CNY so the ECB played dirty pool as they had no choice but to factor USD/CNH.

The methodology remains solidified without changes and appears impossible to alter.

The positive to USD/CNY 6.4300’s forecast was a break lower offered a short trade for 500 pips. Don't lose sight to trade able levels.

EUR/CNY

EUR/CNY as written 24 hours in advance reported 7.4644 and 7.4571. The ECB informed 7.4464, a miss of 107 pips. EUR/CNY was factored by the ECB 2 hours prior to the release. If the calculation was done 2 hours before the release then at 7.4464 was nearly perfect.

EUR/CNY traded 500 pips today from the break at my reported 7.4644 and 7.4571.

USD/CNY for today: 6.3872 and 6.4055.

EUR/CNY for today: 7.4305 and 7.4372.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD treads water above 1.1850 amid thin trading

EUR/USD stays defensive but holds 1.1850 amid quiet markets in the European hours on Monday. The US Dollar is struggling for direction due to thin liquidity conditions as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK and US macro data

GBP/USD kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range near 1.365 in Monday's European trading. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold sticks to intraday losses; lacks follow-through

Gold remains depressed through the early European session on Monday, though it has managed to rebound from the daily trough and currently trades around the $5,000 psychological mark. Moreover, a combination of supporting factors warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders, and before positioning for deeper losses.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate within key ranges as selling pressure eases

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.