On January 08th, 2020, our team highlighted the possibility of a new bearish leg in Crude Oil. During the first trading session of this week, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) could be completing that bearish sequence.
Crude Oil falls $1.29 or 2.38% touching at $52.95 per barrel, while Brent Oil stumbles $1.58 or 2.59% falling until $59.22 per barrel.
In early January 2020, the big participants took advantage of the retail traders in the oil market with the increasingly bullish sentiment driven by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
On January 08th, 2020, the Crude Oil reached at $65.62, the highest level since late April 2019. Different news media covered the attack of a U.S. military base in Iraq and the potential increasing military tensions. However, both the U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that they were not interested in to initiate a war.
On the other hand, the institutional activity since early January 2020 to date, detailed in the CFTC report, showed a reduction in the long-side positioning.
In particular, in the report released on Friday 10th, speculative positions in the long-side reached an extreme high at 89.91%, but, in the last January 24th release, the long-side positioning declined till 88.40%.
In terms of the net positions, institutional traders reduced their net positioning from 567,272 contracts informed on January 10th to 520,568, stated last Friday 24th. Despite the reduction in long positions, the long-term bias continues being bullish.
The current institutional activity is the result of a taking profit activity, which could allow the big participants the re-incorporation for the long side.
Technical Overview
Currently, the Crude Oil price in its daily chart exposes the price action in a potential bottom in a long-term triangular structure in progress.
If the long-term formation that the price action develops, Crude Oil should make a new upside in three waves.
According to the Elliott wave theory, a triangle pattern is subdivided into five internal segments that follow a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence.
A second scenario for the WTI is a potential upside developed in five waves. In this case, the price could surpass even the 2019's high at $66.58 per barrel.
In conclusion, despite the bearish sentiment driven by geopolitical conflicts or the fear boosted by the spread of coronavirus, Crude Oil futures traders keep its bullish bias. In consequence, in the near-term, big participants should drive the price to a new upward leg.
Risk Warning: CFD and Spot Forex trading both come with a high degree of risk. You must be prepared to sustain a total loss of any funds deposited with us, as well as any additional losses, charges, or other costs we incur in recovering any payment from you. Given the possibility of losing more than your entire investment, speculation in certain investments should only be conducted with risk capital funds that if lost will not significantly affect your personal or institution’s financial well-being. Before deciding to trade the products offered by us, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.