COT report - August 28, 2026

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Weekly futures-market positioning across major currencies, energy and metals. COT is a positioning indicator and should not be interpreted as a standalone price forecast.

Key COT extremes and narrative takeaways

Highlights the six highest and two lowest Commercial COT Index readings, with Large Speculator positioning, weekly positioning changes, and price performance providing context for each extreme

Australian Dollar — 97%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at -44,455 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by 296 contracts. Price declined 0.10%.

Natural Gas — 94%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at -197,932 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 5,571 contracts. Price increased 2.97%.

Palladium — 85%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at -4,824 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by 426 contracts. Price increased 6.83%.

Euro FX — 78%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at -36,352 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 22,736 contracts. Price declined 0.86%.

Canadian Dollar — 72%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at -121,522 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 36,644 contracts. Price declined 1.04%.

Crude Oil (WTI) — 63%: Commercial positioning is in the upper half of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +123,449 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 1,359 contracts. Price declined 3.69%.

Gold — 0%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +243,334 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 21,145 contracts. Price declined 3.38%.

Silver — 0%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +25,261 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 1,636 contracts. Price declined 2.78%.

Market positioning

ASSET	PRICE CHG	SPEC. NET	SPEC. NET CHG	COMM. NET	COMM. NET CHG	SMALL NET	OPEN INTEREST	OI CHG	COT INDEX	POSITIONING
Dollar Index	+0.89%	+18,682	-397	-19,838	+838	+1,156	47,953	+0%	16%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Euro FX	-0.86%	-36,352	+22,736	+440	-23,615	+35,912	818,524	+2%	78%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Swiss Franc	-1.12%	-19,946	+7,332	+30,513	-8,461	-10,567	108,923	-4%	3%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
British Pound	-0.84%	-44,524	+10,049	+38,663	-11,690	+5,861	318,468	+11%	0%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Japanese Yen	-0.75%	-63,298	-10,405	+67,837	+6,763	-4,539	384,216	+1%	37%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Canadian Dollar	-1.04%	-121,522	+36,644	+123,231	-38,148	-1,709	329,544	-8%	72%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Australian Dollar	-0.10%	-44,455	-296	+19,074	-2,392	+25,381	333,906	+16%	97%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
New Zealand Dollar	-1.11%	-14,239	+18,381	+15,104	-19,218	-865	88,964	+0%	0%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Mexican Peso	-0.61%	+82,382	+2,930	-88,399	-3,814	+6,017	286,429	+1%	5%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Crude Oil (WTI)	-3.69%	+123,449	+1,359	-156,246	-3,159	+32,797	1,906,740	+1%	63%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Gasoline	+0.85%	+64,159	+6,315	-79,209	-8,720	+15,050	346,134	+3%	56%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Heating Oil	-2.44%	+12,480	-1,399	-34,096	+957	+21,616	271,269	+0%	39%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Natural Gas	+2.97%	-197,932	+5,571	+187,737	-589	+10,195	1,747,730	+1%	94%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
Gold	-3.38%	+243,334	+21,145	-279,585	-21,167	+36,251	427,957	+5%	0%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Silver	-2.78%	+25,261	+1,636	-45,053	-261	+19,792	113,801	-5%	0%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Platinum	-3.06%	+15,386	+2,347	-19,580	-2,023	+4,194	64,648	+8%	63%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Palladium	+6.83%	-4,824	-426	+3,735	+137	+1,089	17,496	-5%	85%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Copper	+0.91%	+85,266	+5,518	-95,049	-4,909	+9,783	283,299	+1%	0%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.

CFTC Report: CAD short covering leads; Gold buying surges

The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.