Consumer Confidence Slips (Again), Spending Outlook Still OK

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Consumer confidence slipped to 125.5 in November. While this marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, the level is still high enough to suggest moderation in the pace of PCE growth rather than outright decline.

Range-Bound Confidence

While confidence has come off last year’s peak, it has remained range-bound between 121 and 136 over the past 12 months.
Major drivers of confidence remain supportive. The stock market is near all-time highs, unemployment is near a 50-year low and gas prices have been trending lower since May. Still, with ongoing concerns about the trade war, we are not banking on a return to last year’s record highs.

I’m Depressed...Let’s Go Shopping

Despite the lackluster numbers for consumer confidence, retail sales and other measures of consumer spending remain on track for moderate growth in the fourth quarter.
Despite the deterioration in confidence, we are not rattled about our call for a solid 5% year-over-year increase in holiday sales. That said, our upbeat forecast owes much to low-base effects after a steep decline in December of last year.

Download The Full Economic Indicators

Author

Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD climbs to two-week highs beyond 1.1900

EUR/USD is keeping its foot on the gas at the start of the week, reclaiming the 1.1900 barrier and above on Monday. The US Dollar remains on the back foot, with traders reluctant to step in ahead of Wednesday’s key January jobs report, allowing the pair to extend its upward grind for now.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold treads water around $5,000

Gold is trading in an inconclusive fashion around the key $5,000 mark on Monday week. Support is coming from fresh signs of further buying from the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could turn more dovish, alongside concerns over its independence, keep the demand for the precious metal running.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin steadies around $70,000, Ethereum and XRP remain under pressure

Bitcoin hovers around $70,000, up near 15% from last week's low of $60,000 despite low retail demand. Ethereum delicately holds $2,000 support as weak technicals weigh amid declining futures Open Interest. XRP seeks support above $1.40 after facing rejection at $1.54 during the previous week's sharp rebound.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Ripple exposed to volatility amid low retail interest, modest fund inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.