Confidence vote ramps up Brexit uncertainty

The course of the UK economy hangs in the balance today, with Theresa May set to face a vote of no confidence in the evening. Meanwhile, improved US-China relations are helping push global stocks higher.

• US-China trade relations help boost global stocks

• Brexit deal tips in the balance as Theresa May faces a vote for her future

• Euro weakness comes amid continues fiscal worries

Global markets are on the rise, as an improved US-China trade outlook helps drive optimism despite political and fiscal instability throughout Europe. The Chinese decision to cut tariffs on US car imports is likely to be the beginning of a wider package of measures aimed at opening up trade pathways between the world's two largest economies. Closer to home, the Brexit chaos may have driven the pound down, yet this is a positive for the internationally focused FTSE 100.

All eyes are trained on the UK once more today, as the 48 letter threshold has been passed to trigger a vote of no confidence against Theresa May. While May's Brexit bill seems to have little support, she is far from guaranteed to leave her post today, given the amount of time it took to garner 48 letters to force this vote in the first place. The pound's rise in the aftermath of the announcement highlights both an element of this announcement being factored in, alongside the rising prospect that article 50 will be delayed to avoid a hard Brexit. Unfortunately, whether she stays or goes, there is a good chance that her successor would find it equally hard to find a deal which appeases parliament and the EU. Theresa's deal may have not been perfect, but to markets it represented the one relatively smooth form of Brexit on the table. With a Brexit deal currently within grasp, tonight's vote will show exactly how far the conservatives are willing to go to shift the Brexit landscape, potentially for the worst.

The euro has been under pressure over the past 24-hours, as the same issues that faced the Italians reared their ugly head for the French leadership. Rebuttals of the Italian fiscal plans from the European Commission centred around the plan of a 2.4% budget deficit, and with the French now planning to impose a 2019 budget deficit of 3.5%, questions over potential intervention are arising for a second country in as many months. With growth on the slide, and fiscal stability issues arising in some of the largest eurozone nations, it comes as no surprise to see traders taking a more negative view of the euro lately. Ahead of the open we expect the Dow Jones to open 245 points higher, at 24,615.