CEE labour productivity gains persist despite some exceptions

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

In Poland, MPC left interest rates unchanged at 3.75 %.
Slovakia’s industrial production growth figure in July accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.1%.
Romania’s trade deficit for July landed at EUR 2.82bn.
Today, Slovenia’s July industrial production is due at 10:30 CET.
Croatia’s industrial producer prices will be published at 11:00 CET relevant for the month of August.
Today, Serbia’s central bank is expected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%.

Economic developments

Labour productivity growth remained stronger in CEE than the EU average in 2Q26. Real labour productivity per hour worked increased by around 1.7% y/y across the CEE8, compared with 0.8% in the EU, maintaining the substantial gap observed since the start of 2025. Looking at individual countries, Slovenia recorded the strongest increase in the EU in the second quarter of 2026, with productivity per hour worked rising by 5.8% y/y. At the other end of the EU distribution, productivity declined by 1.2% in Romania and 0.8% in Czechia. It can still be concluded from the latest figures that productivity gains continue to provide some support to the region’s growth performance, although the divergent picture at the country level is pointing to differing developments in output and labour utilisation across CEE region.

Market movements

The Polish MPC left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% in September, in line with expectations, with the statement offering little indication of a near-term change in policy. Today, the zloty is 0.1% weaker against the euro, while the Polish 10Y yield is 4bp higher. Domestic fiscal risks remain in focus after Finance Minister Domański warned that presidential vetoes of planned tax changes could lower 2027 revenues by PLN 10-15bn, while retail bond sales eased to PLN 8.24bn in August. Elsewhere in FX, the forint is 0.3% weaker against the euro today but remains 0.8% stronger over the week, while the Romanian leu is broadly unchanged. In Romania, delays identified in several REPowerEU projects continue to underline implementation risks around EU-funded investment.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold recovers above $4,050 as Fed Chair Warsh speaks

Gold ticks higher after the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged at 4%. XAU/USD advances as Chair Kevin Warsh explains hikes are working, cooling down hopes for an aggressive 50 bps hike in December.

Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC bulls hold $80K as XAU defends $4,000 ahead of Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) ticks lower near $80,000 on Wednesday, while Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $4,000. Both assets reflect the broader risk-off sentiment as focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day.

The Japanese Yen's Friday hinges on one press conference

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) after a weak start to the week, stabilizing near recent lows as investors focus on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy decision on Friday.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.