AUD/USD surged, buoyed by RBA confidence and inflation growth

The Australian dollar strengthened notably against the US dollar, with the AUD/USD pair reaching 0.6684. Australia’s May economic indicators from MI remained unchanged at zero compared to the previous value. Meanwhile, Australia’s weighted average consumer price index increased to 4.0% y/y from the last 3.6%, surpassing the less ambitious forecast of 3.8%.

Earlier statistics from Westpac also showed a rise in Australia’s consumer sentiment index in June, climbing by 1.7%, following a 0.3% decline in May.

At the Australian Banking Association conference, RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent indicated that the Reserve Bank of Australia is not overly concerned about the growing interest in private loans among consumers. Kent highlighted the significant role that private credit plays in the market and underscored that the RBA is closely monitoring developments. However, the regulator is not overly concerned about growth in this area, as it is not particularly large in Australia.

Meanwhile, business investment is on the rise. Kent drew attention to a notable disparity between business confidence, business conditions, and consumer sentiment. The latter position appears to be below average levels.

AUD/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, the market ended the correction at 0.6577. Today, we consider a consolidation range forming around the level of 0.6666. With an upside exit, we will consider the probability of another growth structure to the level of 0.6703 with the prospect of continued growth to 0.6744. A correction link to the level of 0.6666 (test from above) is possible, followed by potential growth towards 0.6750. Technically, the MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line is above the zero mark and is directed strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a correction to 0.6626 is executed. Today, the market broke upwards to 0.6666 and continues growing towards 0.6694 with the prospect of continuing the development of the wave structure to 0.670, the local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the level of 80. We expect the beginning of the decline to the level of 20.