AUD/USD Forecast: Looking weak while under 0.6500

Matías Salord FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6474

Australian Dollar slides despite positive employment report.
US Dollar remains mixed as yields slide but market sentiment deteriorates.
The AUD/USD pair retreats further from monthly highs; bulls must reclaim 0.6500.

The AUD/USD declined on Thursday and fell below 0.6500. However, despite this correction, the short-term outlook still favors the upside as the Greenback remains under pressure due to weaker US labor market data and declining US Treasury yields.

Data from Australia showed that employment rose by 55,000 in October, surpassing the consensus estimate of 20,000 and significantly higher than the revised figure of 7,800 from the previous month (originally reported as 6,700). Most of the job gains were in part-time positions. The Unemployment Rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7% as expected.

The Melbourne Institute reported a slight increase in the expected one-year inflation rate to 4.9% in November, up from 4.8% in October. Despite the solid employment data, indicating a relatively tight labor market, and the rise in inflation expectations, the AUD/USD dropped during the Asian session as the US Dollar recovered ground.

In the US, most economic data came in below expectations. Continuing Jobless Claims reached the highest since 2022, and Initial Claims rose to 231,000, the highest level in nearly three months. Industrial Production declined by 0.6% in October, exceeding the modest 0.3% contraction expected. On the positive side, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Index rose from -9 to -5.9, and the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index recovered from -8 to -3 in November.

The US Dollar weakened after the data, but the decline was not significant, and it quickly reversed back into positive territory as market sentiment deteriorated.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD retreated below 0.6500 and fell under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating the bullish impulse is fading. The price needs to rise back above 0.6500 relatively soon to retest the key resistance area at 0.6520. If the retreat continues, the bearish momentum will increase further, with AUD/USD targeting 0.6450 first and then 0.6415.

On the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD found support at the 20-SMA. Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) heading south, along with Momentum and the MACD favoring the downside. The short-term outlook has turned neutral to bearish, but this could change if AUD/USD rises and stays above 0.6500.

Support levels: 0.6460 0.6430 0.6405

Resistance levels: 0.6500 0.6530 0.6545

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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