AUD/USD bears to push towards 50-day SMA?

Aaron Hill FP Markets

Ahead of this week’s RBA meeting, the Australian dollar exhibits a potential bearish scenario versus the US dollar, with the monthly and daily charts indicating further softness for the AUD/USD currency pair.

50-day SMA demands attention

Since September 2022, buyers and sellers have squared off between two converging lines on the monthly scale, a movement sufficient to label this pattern as a symmetrical triangle (or coil). You will note that May shook hands with the structure’s upper boundary and has triggered a moderate sell-off this month (down -0.6%). Aiding the upper limit of the coil is a layer of monthly resistance coming in at $0.6670 that’s complemented by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continuing to navigate space south of the 50.00 centreline. There’s also plenty of scope for sellers to stretch their legs at current price on the monthly chart: support is not expected to make a show until as far south as $0.6390.

Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, resistance at $0.6690 has been a talking point since mid-May, withstanding three upside attempts. If sellers maintain their position this week and overthrow willing bids at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.6583, this would unearth a possible bearish scenario towards the 200-day SMA at $0.6539 and neighbouring support coming in from $0.6502.

H1 confluence

Given the space for sellers to make their way to the 50-day SMA at $0.6583 on the daily chart, technical studies lean in favour of further selling towards $0.66 on the H1 scale this week, followed by H1 support from $0.6580. Therefore, the area showing H1 resistance at $0.6622 converging with channel resistance (drawn from the high of $0.6704) and a trendline support-turned-resistance line (taken from the low of $0.6575) could be a zone sellers show interest in this week.

Author

Aaron Hill

FP Markets

After completing his Bachelor’s degree in English and Creative Writing in the UK, and subsequently spending a handful of years teaching English as a foreign language teacher around Asia, Aaron was introduced to financial trading,

EUR/USD climbs to two-week highs beyond 1.1900

EUR/USD is keeping its foot on the gas at the start of the week, reclaiming the 1.1900 barrier and above on Monday. The US Dollar remains on the back foot, with traders reluctant to step in ahead of Wednesday’s key January jobs report, allowing the pair to extend its upward grind for now.

GBP/USD hits three-day peaks, targets 1.3700

GBP/USD is clocking decent gains at the start of the week, advancing to three-day highs near 1.3670 and building on Friday’s solid performance. The better tone in the British Pound comes on the back of the intense sekk-off in the Greenback and despite re-emerging signs of a fresh government crisis in the UK.

Gold treads water around $5,000

Gold is trading in an inconclusive fashion around the key $5,000 mark on Monday week. Support is coming from fresh signs of further buying from the PBoC, while expectations that the Fed could turn more dovish, alongside concerns over its independence, keep the demand for the precious metal running.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin steadies around $70,000, Ethereum and XRP remain under pressure

Bitcoin hovers around $70,000, up near 15% from last week's low of $60,000 despite low retail demand. Ethereum delicately holds $2,000 support as weak technicals weigh amid declining futures Open Interest. XRP seeks support above $1.40 after facing rejection at $1.54 during the previous week's sharp rebound.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Ripple exposed to volatility amid low retail interest, modest fund inflows

Ripple (XRP) is extending its intraday decline to around $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid growing pressure from the retail market and risk-off sentiment that continues to keep investors on the sidelines.