Asia walks in green, shrugs off Wall Street woes — Tokyo talks and bond calm allows risk on a longer leash

Call it a reflex rally, call it a dead cat with a heartbeat — either way, Asia’s walking in green this morning, not bleeding. And that alone tells you something. After a U.S. session that looked like a Powell-led dunk into the stagflation abyss, locals are fading the fear and trading the Tokyo “ Art of the Deal “ optics.

The real macro hedge right now? Tokyo. Japan’s trade talks in D.C. are front and center, and every desk’s watching to see if Akazawa can thread the needle — cut a side deal, dodge Trump’s sledgehammer, and limp out with bruises instead of a shattered jaw. If Japan pulls it off, expect a broad relief bid across Asia. The optics already look halfway decent. If only we could get China to the table, we might make a meal out of this.

Maybe we’ve already fallen too far down the rabbit hole — 245% tariffs? That’s deep into diminishing-returns territory, even for this White House. And on the China front, trading rooms are lighting up with one phrase: stimulus watch. Beijing’s not blind — they’re staring at those port numbers like hawks. You don’t get a 10% week-on-week cargo drop without someone in Zhongnanhai reaching for the lever.

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., bonds finally stopped acting like meme stocks. Powell didn’t give us a pivot, but he also didn’t pour fuel on the fire. The 5-year cooled to 3.9%, the 20-year auction cleared without drama, and vol desks exhaled — even if it was through gritted teeth.

Forget the tired “China dumping Treasuries” narrative — TIC data says otherwise. PBoC’s not bailing on USTs, they’re hoarding gold. This isn’t a foreign flight — it’s a rotation. Big difference.

And on the FX side? The dollar’s still soft, but it’s not in free fall. Treasuries stabilizing gives the greenback a “safe-haven pulse. By no means am I flipping bullish — I’m still leaning short — but this isn’t a tape you press into weakness. Take your profits, and don’t get greedy. We still have an ECB rate cut to navigate. This is a market that punishes assumptions.

A little more worrying, however, is that Japan's March export figures were somewhat soft—well, at least softer than expected—at +3.9% YoY, which missed the target, with China-bound shipments down nearly 5%. That’s your canary in the coal mine moment right there. The tariff vise is tightening, and Asia’s big players are starting to feel the squeeze. But guess what? No panic. Why? Because this tape already sniffed it out weeks ago. The data just caught up to the price.

So yeah — Japan’s exports missed, tariffs are still circling, Powell dropped a half-hearted lifeline, and the dollar’s got a slight bid off the mat. But here’s the thing: Asia didn’t blink.

Bottom line? This ain’t euphoria — but it’s not risk-off capitulation either. Think of it as a tactical pause wrapped in low-volume conviction. Traders are playing defense with optionality, not panic.

And in a market like this? Sometimes staying on your feet is a win.

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Every morning I walk into this market not knowing how the day will start — and even less how it’ll end. But if my temple visit this week was any indication, the Seam Si sticks might’ve nailed it. I tossed the container, got stick #85, and sure enough, it hit in the local lottery — 10,000 THB win! Woo hoo. Call it coincidence or prophecy in motion, but with the way this market’s been trading, I’m starting to trust the sticks more than the squawk box.