Asia open: Silence is never golden these days

Asia markets

After a string of bruising, headline-induced meltdowns, Tuesday finally gave traders a moment to breathe. No new tariff grenades. No midday truth bombs from the White House. Just a rare window of calm where you could sip your double-shot espresso without worrying it would get cold before the next risk-off firestorm hit.

But in this market? Silence is never golden — it's just the calm before the next chaos cycle. And sure enough, the tape just got rattled again. US equity futures slipped fast after Nvidia dropped the mic, revealing fresh export curbs on AI gear headed to China. Then came the other shoe: Trump ordering a new probe into tariffs on critical minerals. Boom — just like that, we're back in whiplash mode.

Welcome to the new normal: one step forward, two tariff probes back. The bounce gets front-loaded, then sideswiped by headlines that twitch every investor. At this point, traders are basically picking headline risk colors out of a hat — green, amber, red — and trying not to get run over.

If you were planning for a low-vol session well think again , you just got served a hot stack of trade restrictions with a side of tariff fries. There’s no clean read on how Asia or Europe plays this — because no one really knows what the next “Trump Tape Bomb ” is going to say. That’s why we hedge the tail. That’s why we don’t chase the calm.

Meanwhile, China's equity tape is twitchy. We’re heading into a critical macro print — Q1 GDP drops Wednesday, and even before the full tariff bite, the market’s bracing for soft numbers. Retail sales? Likely weak. Consumption? Still crawling.

Normally, you’d tilt the risk skew hard bearish here, but not so fast — because the National Team is lurking. Every dip? Gets love. Every trader onshore? Knows the deal — you’re not shorting this tape with size, not unless you want a call from the exchange.

Add in sell limits on local exchanges, and price discovery in China feels like performance art. Still, real-time shipping data says it all: clogged European ports, vessels rerouted, and Chinese export cargo down sharply. Inventory's building, and production pain is coming.

FX? Yuan's sliding, and unless the PBoC fix throws a curve, I’m betting we see 7.35+ on USDCNH in the days ahead. Yeah, that’s my book talking — but even without bias, intervention is the only thing capping upside. Take off the lid, and this pair rips.

Tariff fatigue is real, but the data drip and policy noise keep reloading the tape. The relief rallies feel thinner. The selloffs come sharper. And for traders? It's not about who’s right — it’s about who’s still standing when the dust settles.

Now, all eyes are on Asia. Japan’s trade talks are emerging as the first real test balloon of this carrot-and-stick diplomacy reboot, while China remains the main arena for Washington’s economic reset. Tariff escalation has clearly hit diminishing returns— any further bump in trade taxes is little more than popcorn time. The market’s now watching for signals that diplomacy, not brinkmanship, is taking the driver’s seat.

White House Press Secretary Leavitt teased that 15 trade deals are "on the table," but let’s be honest—this isn’t some kumbaya trade summit. The U.S. wants engagement, but not without concessions. This isn’t an olive branch, it’s a filtered invite: friends get rewarded, adversaries get boxed out.

For its part, China is stonewalling—cards close to the vest, supply chain fractures deepening, and shipping data screaming slowdown. But let’s not mistake silence for strength. The U.S. is aiming to set new rules of engagement—on trade, on currency, and on access—and the message is clear: play ball, or get benched.

The view

The VIX eased lower for a third straight day, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves—it’s still firmly parked above 30, which is the new baseline ever since Trump’s April 2 tariff sledgehammer. Investors are still digesting the chaos between the 90-day reprieve for friendly nations, the scorched-earth China policy, and those maybe-not-so-exempt tech products.

Me? I took a different approach to market forecasting last night. I hit the temple, shook the “seam si” sticks, and let fate speak. The fortune said wealth and good luck were coming. Naturally, I didn’t load up on risk—but I did grab a lotto ticket with the same number. Call it hedged optimism, Thai-style.