As suggested: An upside day

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

USD: Dec '26 is Up at 102.180.

Energies: Nov '26 Crude is Up at 92.66.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 2 ticks and trading at 103.02.

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 24 ticks Higher and trading at 7865.75.

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4203.00.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Down which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Mixed. All of Europe is trading Mixed as well.

Possible challenges to traders

FOMC Member Hammack Speaks at 12:10 PM EST. Major.
Lack of major economic news.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the two year dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real news pending. The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of Barcharts

Bias

On Friday our bias was to the Upside and the markets didn't disappoint. The Dow closed Higher on the session by 423 points and the other indices climbed Higher as well. Today our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Today is Columbus Day in the United States and whereas the markets for stock are open, the bond markets are closed.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

Nick Mastrandrea over 20 years experience in trading and formerly held a NASD Series 7. He currently holds a NJ Life, Health and Variable Authority. Nick is a published writer and his work has appeared in Futures Magazine, TraderPlanet and others.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold sticks to modest losses; seems vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold extends its intraday retracement slide from a one-week high, hitting a fresh daily low around $4,170 during the early European session. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after a modest downtick amid the US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which, in turn, is seen as weighing on the non-yielding bullion.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI defends $0.0800 support as selling pressure mounts

Pi Network is trading in the red on Monday, hovering above $0.0800 as selling pressure mounts. PI token’s speculative demand is easing, with Open Interest below $9 million despite rising social chatter, hinting at panic-driven buzz among investors. The technical outlook for PI suggests a bearish bias, with the risk of breaking below the $0.0800 support level.

USD/INR: Deep in red below 96.00 as RBI rescues Indian Rupee

After opening significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, the Indian Rupee (INR) clings to recovery gains near 95.80. The pair remains undermined by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) fresh measures to curb US Dollar demand, which has brought relief for the Indian currency.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?