As predicted a mixed day

USD: Dec '26 is up at 101.530.

Energies: Dec '26 Crude is up at 99.82.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 3 ticks and trading at 105.17.

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 E-mini ES contract is 60 ticks higher and trading at 7770.00.

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading up at 4145.20.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Up which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down.  Asia traded Mixed.    Europe is trading Higher at the present time.  

Possible challenges to traders 

• Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST.    Major.
• Lack of Major economic news. 

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the two year dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no major news pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

Bias

Yesterday our bias was Mixed or Neutral and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow closed Lower by 15 points but the other indices closed Higher.  All-in-all a Mixed day.  Today our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the Housing Starts and Pending Home Sales numbers came in lower than expected. The markets as a result dropped.