A Billion here, a Billion there

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to

August! The summer is flying by quickly and soon; it'll be back to school time... I have a good friend, Craig, in Toronto Ca, that always bets me a case of Budweiser on the Cardinals/ Blue Jays baseball games... And at the end, I'll owe him a truck load of Buds... UGH! My beloved Cardinals are in a real funk right now, as they are getting good starting pitching but can't hit with men on base... Oh well, this was a rebuilding year and they got us all lathered up early on... Harold Melvin And The Blue Notes greet me this morning with their song: If You Don't Know Me By Now...

The War premium that was attached to the dollar in recent months has seen it rinsed away, albeit slowly... The dollar saw selling on Friday last week that brought the BBDXY down to 1,210... And in the overnight markets the dollar was sold down more to 1,205... Maybe, just maybe, Because you never know, but maybe traders are finally seeing the light that shines on the U.S.'s fiscal status.... And have decided that buying dollars isn't a prudent thing to be doing...

The SPTs saw that the dollar was getting sold down the river and decided to something about Gold / Silver... The two metals had reached $4,100 and $60 respectively, and the SPTs said... "that ain't happening" And have defended the two levels with major efforts the last week or so... $4,100 in Gold and $60 in Silver...  

So, Gold closed the week at $4,043, down $60 on the day, and Silver closed the week at $57.89 down $1.49 on the day.... I've got a great article, regarding Gold, for you in the FWIW this morning, from Frank Trotter! You'll not want to miss that!

The price of Oil was back to inching higher and ended the week with an $84 handle, and the 10-year's yield rose to 4.74% to end the week... 

In the overnight markets last night.... Well, Gold/Silver traders are feeling their oats this morning, as they've decided to run Gold/Silver up the flagpole again and test the lines in the sand the SPTs have made... Gold is up $ 11 to start the day/week, and Silver is right behind it as it is up 23-cents to start the day/week... The STPs were out early this morning, as Gold / Silver were up more than their stated amounts, last night before I retired.... 

The dollar got sold down the river again overnight and the BBDXY starts today/week at 1,205.... The Fed Heads are in doing some yield control and the 10-year's yield is 4.68%... And the price of Oil continues to get whipsawed every day and is down to an $79 handle to start the day/week...

There's something more about this dollar selling that's really got me scratching my bald head. I just can't put my finger on it, but I eventually will; you can bet your bottom dollar on that!

Back to the dollar for a minute... With the selling of the dollar, the euro is kicking some tail these days as it remains the offset currency to the dollar... The euro was back to the 1.15 handle on Friday, and looking quite perky... The single unit was last around the 1.15 handle back in June... Back then, I was convinced that the dollar was starting a weak trend, only to have a curveball thrown at me and we saw the euro sink back. But the underlying weak trend is still in place, and that's something we need to keep reminded of... 

And the Aussie dollar (A$) is back to 70-cents this morning! And the Chinese renminbi is 6.75 ish.... The Chinese are taking this opportunity in the selling of the dollar, as their cue to allow the renminbi to gain VS the dollar... Better start picking out our currency or currencies du jour because I think they about ready to make a run VS the dollar... And here's why:

Well, the Central Banks of Japan and S. Korea were intervening with their respective currencies, and while I don't condone this intervention, this has also had some Fed/Cabal/Cartel intervention too, so that makes it real... The Japanese yen is around 157 now, instead of the 162 it held previously... 

But what happens when the intervention is finished? This is when the traders will have to pick up the fork in the road and decide which way they'll take the currency... For my Pfennig I would bet that they decide to weaken the yen once again... But that's just jaded old me... 

And this got me thinking... (I hear you groaning!) Look at Japan this way... They have the largest holding of Treasuries... And, Japanese investors have long been selling yen and buying higher yielding currencies and Treasuries... So, the intervention is to prevent a Margin Call on the Japanese investors, because if the intervention doesn't work, these Japanese investors will receive Margin Calls on their "carry trade"... This would put them into the position of having to sell their Treasuries... Uh Oh! 

I know, this is the jaded Chuck coming out, but I speak the truth, and hopefully I don't run anyone off today... But if Japanese investors begin selling Treasuries, the bond yields will rise, and that means that U.S. servicing costs on the Treasuries that are outstanding would increase, and that would put our Country's date with disaster on a quicker pace than it already is on.... Uh Oh! 

Oh! And Treasury Sec. Bessent had a memo that posted over the weekend about "buy $5-$10 Billion yen"....  So, we're not talking about chicken feed here... A Billion here, A Billion there, and pretty soon we're talking about some real money! 

Oh, and where's he going to get the $5-$10 Billion to buy yen? Well, he'll sell dollars.... What is that going to do to the dollar? You guessed it... I can hear the Fed Heads in their next meeting... "By George, you've sunk my battleship"... (speaking of the dollar)

I'll quit there, there's no need to go further, I think you get the picture that this is all going to end up in tears...

Well, the FOMC left rates unchanged at their meeting last week, and that has had a lot to do with the selloff of the dollar, as many traders had taken the position that the FOMC would hike rates last week, and they wanted to get ahead of the Cabal/ Cartel....  

The FOMC chairman, Warsh, did say that inflation was too high for his liking and that a rate hike would be coming soon... So far, Warsh has been a real dud for the rate cut enthusiasts... They all thought that as soon as Warsh was in, that he would push for rate cuts... He's two FOMC meeting into his term and he's left rates unchanged so far... 

By all means, he shouldn't be pushing for rate cuts, so I'll give him some credit. But I think all this delay in moving rates is going to cost him some credibility as inflation continues to rise... 

Well, this Friday, will be this month's Jobs Jamboree, and quite frankly I don't see how the BLS can rig the numbers enough to reach 100,000, when the world is expecting a low number of jobs created in July... The Unemployment Rate should also rise... But again, this is all up to the BLS and their bag of hedonic adjustments... 

Speaking of Data... The U.S. will receive its share of economic reports this week starting today with the ISM (manufacturing )... We're still making things, folks, and you would think that there would be demand driving the ISM, but NOOOOOOOOOO! That's not happening, as U.S. consumers are still reeling and attempting to make ends meet as inflation just keeps driving prices higher... 

To recap... the dollar's war premium is getting tested and it's about time according to Chuck... The SPTs have made $4,100 for Gold and $60 for Silver, their lines in the sand... and will defend them... So, it's up to consumers to drive the metals truck right through these levels.... One thing that Frank points out in his missive (in the FWIW) is that Americans still aren't on board with owning Gold/Silver... When that changes, it will be a scene... 

For What It's Worth... I came across this essay by my good friend, and former Big Boss, Frank Trotter, on Saturday, and knew in a moment that it was FWIW worthy! Frank is an excellent writer and while this article is quite long.

Here's your snippet: "Few questions come up more often in conversations with precious metals investors than this one: “If things get bad enough, won’t the government just take my gold like Roosevelt did in 1933?”

It’s a fair question, and it deserves a serious answer rather than a dismissive one. The 1933 episode was real. Americans were ordered to turn over their gold coins, bullion and gold certificates to the Federal Reserve in exchange for paper dollars, under threat of a $10,000 fine, a staggering sum at the time, and up to 10 years in prison. After they turned it in, they watched the government revalue that same gold by roughly 69% within a year. Anyone who lived through it, or whose grandparents told the story at the dinner table, is entitled to a healthy skepticism about government promises.

But history rhymes; it does not repeat verbatim. When we examine why the 1933 order happened, including the specific monetary machinery that made it both necessary and useful to the government of that day, we see a very different environment from today. The mainstream analytical consensus, from the Federal Reserve’s own historians, from legal scholars, and from the financial press, has converged on the same conclusion we have reached independently: A rerun of Executive Order 6102 is a low-probability scenario facing gold owners today. The realistic risks are different in kind: regulatory and tax-related rather than confiscatory.

Part I: What Actually Happened in 1933, and Why

To assess whether something can happen again, you first have to understand why it happened the first time. The popular retelling, “The government stole everyone’s gold,” is exactly what it felt like. But this misses the mechanics, and the mechanics are everything.

In April 1933, the United States was on a functioning gold standard. Paper dollars were, by law, redeemable in physical gold at a fixed rate of $20.67 per ounce, a rate that had been enshrined since the Gold Standard Act of 1900. The Federal Reserve was legally required to hold gold backing against the currency it issued. Gold was not merely an investment; it was the legal foundation of the money supply and the settlement medium written into countless private contracts through so-called gold clauses, which entitled creditors to demand payment in gold, thereby guaranteeing the paper. We are bankers and we would like that!

That architecture created a very specific vulnerability. In the depths of the Depression-era banking crisis, frightened depositors did the rational thing: They converted deposits to currency and currency to gold, draining metal from the Federal Reserve’s vaults faster than it could be replenished. The government faced a genuine technical insolvency in its monetary obligations. Obviously, it could not print gold, and it could not expand the money supply to fight the Depression without either acquiring more gold or breaking the link."

Chuck Again... You really outdid yourself with this article, Frank! And you are correct in saying that confiscation is the biggest worry among potential Gold investors... And you did a great job of explaining that Confiscation isn't anything to worry about.... Thank you!

Market Prices 8/3/2026: American Style: A$ .7002, kiwi .5790, C$ .7124, euro 1.1525, sterling 1.3462, Swiss $1.2352, European Style: rand 16.4835, krone 9.5382, SEK 9.5366, forint 315.97, zloty 3.1597, koruna 21.0032, RUB $79.77, yen 156.96, sing 1.2223, HKD 7.8423, INR 96.56, China 6.7535, peso 17.32, BRL 5.0729, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 99.84 Oil $79.72, 10-year 4.68%, Silver $57.98, Platinum $1,295.00, Palladium $1,295.00, Copper $6.51, and Gold... $4,054.

That's it for today... I'm really dragging the line these days, as I've gotten another cold and it has me reeling! I guess I was around little Evie too much last week, as she's a germ machine... But I don't mean to blame her, my system is so at risk after 19 years of Chemo that I catch what other people are selling... One of these days, I won't be on Chemo any longer... And I look forward to those days... No Pfennig tomorrow, oncologist / infusion day.... The Babys take us to the finish line today with their song: Midnight Rendezvous. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!