- Joe Biden has been elected President according to all news networks.
- Clear victory mostly priced by markets.
- Two Georgia Senate races are critical to fiscal stimulus and of interest to markets.
President-elect Joe Biden – not former Vice-President anymore. The Democratic candidate has defeated President Donald Trump according to the Associated Press, NBC, ABC, CNN and also the conservative Fox News network. Moreover, the popular pro-GOP station has called Nevada and Arizona to Biden, while others are waiting for more results.
Will Trump concede? That remains an open question, but perhaps irrelevant for markets at this point. A win for Biden has been mostly priced in by investors, who collectively bet on a mere delay in the results, not a contested election. After Fox's call, all the president's unsubstantiated claims of fraud seem to fade into the background.
The more important question is – how much is Biden's victory priced in? Mostly so. Stocks advanced throughout the week but paused on Friday, seemingly slowing down with the vote count. Equities could extend their gains on Monday before profit-taking – a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
The safe-haven US dollar has been on the back foot around the elections, and it may now extend its falls before stabilizing. What about gold and the next moves for markets in general? Georgia is set to be on markets' minds.
Two Senate run-offs are due in January and they are critical for control of the upper chamber. With Republicans on course to have 50 seats and Democrats 48, a win for Dems in the two run-offs would cause a tie in the upper house. Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris would be able to break ties, thus flipping the Senate from Republicans to Democrats.
A trifecta of wins – the Presidency, the House, and the Senate – would allow Biden to push through an ambitious stimulus package that markets desire.
On the other hand, the smallest majority possible is unlikely to enable Dems to pass major reforms. Business-unfriendly policies such as tax hikes and regulation are unlikely to pass muster as some of the party's Senators come from conservative states. That would be a win-win for markets – and that would depend on opinion polls toward the two run-offs.
Surveys in Georgia were considerably more accurate than in other states, including neighboring Florida and far away Wisconsin that was substantially off. Therefore, investors are unlikely to wait for the vote from the Peach State to move.
Georgia's fresh esults showed Republicans ahead of Democrats in the first round of Senate races, but Biden is ahead of Trump in the presidential elections. The race for the White House will be called only after a recount, but in any case, it is clear that the two Senate races will likely come down to razor-thin margins.
Overall, Biden's election is mostly priced in, and now Georgia is on markets' minds.
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