Economists at Commerzbank analyze PLN outlook as markets await the first rate cut by Poland’s National Bank (NBP) in September.
Shaping up for first rate cut in Poland
Inflation is sufficiently close to the 10% YoY mark, while the real economy is proving much weaker than markets had anticipated. As a result, it is quite likely that NBP will kick-start its rate cutting cycle in September with a 25 bps reduction.
Such a prospect was increasingly priced-in over the past month, leading to the Polish Zloty underperforming the Hungarian Forint. This relative underperformance of Zloty is likely to extend further.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD stays below 1.3000 after BoE policy decisions
GBP/USD struggles to gather recovery momentum and trades well below 1.3000 on Thursday. The Bank of England left the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, as expected, in March and noted that economic uncertainty heightened in the UK, limiting the pair's upside.
EUR/USD remains under pressure, trades near 1.0850
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory near 1.0850 in the second half of the day on Thursday. The pair is dragged down by a decent US Dollar rebound following the Fed event and ECB President Lagarde's cautious comments on the economic outlook.
Gold corrects lower but holds above $3,030
Gold corrects lower after setting a new record-high above $3,050 early Thursday but manages to stabilize above $3,030. Retreating US Treasury bond yields after the Fed's March meeting help XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin hovers above $85,500 as Trump calls the Fed to lower interest rates
Bitcoin price edges lower around $85,500 on Thursday after gaining nearly 5% the previous day. US President Trump called on the Fed to lower interest rates as tariffs start to hurt the economy.
Tariff wars are stories that usually end badly
In a 1933 article on national self-sufficiency1, British economist John Maynard Keynes advised “those who seek to disembarrass a country from its entanglements” to be “very slow and wary” and illustrated his point with the following image: “It should not be a matter of tearing up roots but of slowly training a plant to grow in a different direction”.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.