WTI stabilizes above $98.00 amid mixed US-Iran peace deal signals

WTI stalls the previous day’s sharp fall amid mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal.
Trump flagged progress in talks with Iran but warned of military action if a deal is not reached.
A fall in US Crude inventories on strong demand further acts as a tailwind for the black liquid.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – steadies following the previous day's downfall of nearly 5% amid mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal. The commodity currently trades near the $98.30 region, unchanged for the day, as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

US President Trump said on Wednesday that the US is in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, fueling hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Adding to this, US Vice President JD Vance also struck an optimistic tone and stated that Iran wanted to make a deal. This, in turn, led to the overnight decline in Crude Oil prices, though the downfall stalled in the wake of Trump's warning of more military action if Iran did not agree to a peace deal.

In response, Iran criticised Trump's threat and warned against renewed US and Israeli attacks, saying that any such move could greatly escalate the war. Furthermore, investors remain skeptical about an elusive US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. In fact, Iran launched a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to control traffic through the strategic waterway.

This keeps geopolitical risks premium in play and helps limit further losses for Crude Oil prices. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that US Crude and gasoline stockpiles fell last week as demand remained elevated. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the commodity has topped out in the near-term and positioning for any further depreciating move.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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