WTI Price Forecast: Looks to build on gains beyond $100 on fading de-escalation hopes
- WTI gains strong positive traction after Trump threatens to target Iran’s energy infrastructure.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful gains.
- A sustained move beyond the recent swing high will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices caught aggressive bids on Thursday and rallied closer to the 100.00 psychological mark during the Asian session following US President Donald Trump's Iran war update.
Addressing the nation, Trump said that Iran will be hit extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and will be brought to the Stone Age if no deal is reached. Trump further added that Iranian energy infrastructure remains a possible target, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the sharp intraday rise in Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the black liquid once again showed resilience near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move up beyond the $100.00/barrier mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further appreciating move for Crude Oil prices.
Meanwhile, the momentum has weakened as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator crosses below the signal line and slips under the zero line, while its negative histogram expands, signaling strengthening downside pressure after an extended advance. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index holds around 58, off prior overbought readings, which aligns with a normalization of momentum rather than outright capitulation.
In the meantime, immediate resistance emerges at $100.80, the latest reaction high before the current pullback, followed by the $102.70 peak that guards the recent top near $103. Above this, a break would open the way toward the $105.00 psychological area. That said, the failure to sustain above the recent $102–103 area might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and drag Crude Oil prices to the $98.50 support, where recent lows align with the short-term consolidation base.
This is followed by $96.50 as the next bearish target. A deeper slide toward $94.50 would bring Crude Oil prices closer to the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart around $92.50, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
