WTI Price Forecast: Consolidates below mid-$96.00s as Mideast jitters favor bulls

WTI bulls remain on the sidelines despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.
Sustained strength above the 78.6% Fibo. would reaffirm the near-term constructive outlook.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the overnight modest bounce from the $94.65 area, or the weekly low, and remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently trades near the $96.35 region, down around 0.20% for the day, though it remains within striking distance of the highest level since May 20, touched on Tuesday.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it had struck a Togo-flagged tanker that attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump said that he was approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran. This, in turn, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and might continue to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.

Crude oil prices retain a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July corrective fall. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a modestly positive reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 stays comfortably above neutral. Momentum indicators together hint that upward momentum is still constructive.

However, crude oil prices, so far, have been struggling to build on gains above the 78.6% Fibo. hurdle at $98.55. This is followed by the recent cycle high region at $107.11, which, if cleared, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. level at $91.82, ahead of the 50% retracement at $87.10 and the 100-day SMA clustered near $85.24, while deeper pullbacks would expose the 38.2% retracement at $82.38.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY jumps above 157.00 after BoJ's expected rate hike to 1.25%

USD/JPY picks up fresh bids and jumps above 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday after the Japanese Yen remains under intense selling pressure despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate hike to 1.25% and a somewhat hawkish Monetary Policy Statement, as two dissents against the rate hike weigh. All eyes now remain on BoJ Governor Ueda's press conference for further trading impetus.

Gold: Acceptance above $4,400 is critical for buyers

Gold holds the previous recovery around $4,350 early Friday; buyers still cautious. US Dollar trades subdued amid retreating Oil prices and US Treasury bond yields. Gold settled Thursday above the 100-day SMA near $4,320, with a neutral daily RSI.

Bitcoin extends recovery, Ethereum eyes $2,500, XRP holds $1.30

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) extend their recovery, trading above $76,700, $2,400 and $1.300, respectively, on Friday. These top three cryptocurrencies now face key technical levels that could determine whether their recoveries extend further or pull back.

Cardano extends gains on bullish derivatives

Cardano (ADA) extends its recovery, trading above $0.210 at the time of writing on Friday, after finding support around a key zone earlier this week. Improving derivatives positioning and supporting technical indicators indicate growing bullish sentiment among ADA traders. Derivatives data shows a bullish tilt among Cardano traders.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.