WTI Price Forecast: Consolidates above $89.00; bullish bias remains amid Iran risks
- WTI bulls seem hesitant, though the downside remains cushioned amid US-Iran tensions.
- The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
- Dips could be bought into, while a move beyond $91.58 will reaffirm the positive outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just above the $89.00 mark, unchanged for the day. The commodity, however, remains close to its highest level since July 24, which it touched on Wednesday, as the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the ongoing US-Iran clashes over the Strait of Hormuz.
Even from a technical perspective, crude oil prices maintain a bullish near‑term bias above the 100‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85.10 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $86.86. Furthermore, momentum indicators remain constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 62 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) above zero with a positive reading and expanding histogram. This, in turn, suggests that buyers still control the short‑term tone and any corrective slide is likely to be bought into.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $91.58, which, if cleared decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and pave the way for additional gains. The next relevant hurdle is pegged at the 78.6% retracement near $98.31 and the cycle high anchored at $106.87. On the downside, initial support is seen at $86.86, or the 50.0% retracement, followed by the 100‑day SMA at $85.10. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% level at $82.14, with $76.29 and $66.84 acting as more distant structural floors.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
