WTI Price Forecast: 100-day SMA caps upside near $85

WTI retreats on Monday even as the Middle East backdrop remains tense.
Fresh US sanctions on Iran and Tehran’s threat to halt Gulf Oil exports keep geopolitical risks elevated.
Buyers retain a slight technical edge, but upside remains capped near the 100-day SMA.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades on the back foot on Monday after gaining more than 5% last week. The pullback comes even as the broader backdrop remains largely unchanged, with Middle East tensions elevated and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily restricted. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $84.37 per barrel, down about 2.28% on the day.

Markets also face an immediate geopolitical risk as the United States is expected to announce fresh sanctions against Iran later on Monday, while Tehran has warned that it could halt Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere in the Persian Gulf if Washington proceeds with its plans.

Strategists at BBH highlight the scale of Scott Bessent’s proposed campaign, describing it as the “single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary,” aimed not only at Iran but also at “the foreign networks that buy and transport its oil.” They stress that “China is the critical pressure point,” noting that it is Iran’s largest trading partner and “buys roughly 90% of its oil exports.” As a result, BBH argues that Beijing’s reaction will be pivotal, with “Beijing’s response…key to the direction of risk sentiment.”

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the recent advance met resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has capped further upside, though WTI continues to hold above the 21-day and 200-day SMAs

The prior downward resistance trend line, with a break level at $85, now acts as an immediate topside obstacle, yet momentum remains constructive with the Relative Strength Index (RS) on the daily chart near 55 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand despite a relatively weak Average Directional Index (ADX) around 19.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former descending trend line around $85, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at $85.64. A sustained break above this area could open the door for further gains.

On the downside, the 21-day SMA at $81.37 offers immediate support, followed by the 200-day SMA near $76.84 and the former ascending trend line around $75. A deeper pullback could expose the $68.00 horizontal support area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

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