WTI holds firm as stalled US-Iran talks and Hormuz disruptions support prices
- WTI holds firm as stalled US-Iran talks keep supply risks elevated through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran offers plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains over the US response.
- Technicals show a bullish bias, with momentum indicators easing but still supportive.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil holds steady on Monday, as stalled US-Iran peace talks reduce hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $95.00 per barrel, with shifting geopolitical headlines keeping volatility elevated.
A report by Axios, citing a US official and two sources familiar with the matter, said Iran has presented a new proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while leaving nuclear negotiations for a later stage. In response, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said US President Donald Trump had discussed Iran’s proposal with his team but added, “I would not say that the United States is considering Iran’s proposal.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual US-Iran blockade, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices as supply remains largely disrupted.
In an exclusive interview with MS NOW, Arsenio Dominguez, head of the United Nations’ maritime agency, said around 2,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that disruptions in the waterway are likely to persist long after the conflict ends.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations, particularly any signals from Washington on the proposal and progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A breakthrough could ease supply concerns and weigh on Oil prices. Until then, WTI is likely to remain supported amid ongoing supply concerns.
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a constructive bullish bias as the price holds well above its key moving averages. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85.97, together with the 100-day SMA at $72.87 and the 200-day SMA at $67.40, sits comfortably below spot and collectively underpins the broader uptrend.
Momentum has cooled from earlier overbought extremes, with the Relative Strength Index (14) now around 55, suggesting a more balanced but still positive tone, while the Average Directional Index (14) near 24 hints that trend strength has eased from prior elevated levels.
On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the 50-day SMA at $85.98, which marks the first key demand area should a deeper pullback unfold. Below that, the 100-day SMA at $72.88 and the 200-day SMA at $67.41 define more distant structural support zones that would be expected to attract buyers if tested, as long as price continues to trade decisively above them.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
