|

WTI drops over 3% amid risk-on sentiment prevailing, as geopolitical jitters fade

  • WTI trades at $82.49 per barrel, down 3.16%, as traders dismiss fears of Middle East conflict escalation.
  • Prices fail to break 50-day moving average at $86.38 despite ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza.
  • Upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, Apple's earnings, and China's PMI data to influence oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped more than 3% amid the North American session amid a risk-on impulse, with traders shrugging off fears the Middle East conflict would escalate further. That, alongside the looming US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, boosted the Greenback, as WTI exchanges hands at $82.49 per barrel, down 3.16%.

Oil prices decline amid easing Middle East conflict fears and anticipation of Fed meeting

Last Friday’s news that Israel began its ground offensive in Gaza stoked worries the conflict could expand in the region, which concentrates a third of Oil global output. Nevertheless, of late, it has failed, as seen by WTI prices failing to crack the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 86.38.

Even though Israel's offensive continues, it has not been as strong as initially expected by market participants. Sources cited by Reuters commented that the “war premium has come out of the market” as the conflict remains contained.

Aside from this, market participants' focus shifts to the Fed’s decision. The US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Besides that, market players are eyeing Apple’s earnings to gather signs of a probable economic slowdown.

China’s data would also influence Oil prices, as it is one of the largest importers. The economic docket would feature Manufacturing and Services PMIs, with Oil speculators looking for clues of stabilization in its economy.

WTI Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The daily chart portrays the US Crude Oil as neutral to upward biased, likely to find support at the October 6 low of $81.56, ahead of sliding past the bottom Bollinger’s band. If WTI stays above $82.00, the next resistance that it would face would be the 20-da cy moving average (DMA) at $85.61, followed by the 50-DMA at $86.38. Conversely, if WTI dives below $81.00, that next support would be the August 24 low of $77.64.

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price82.44
Today Daily Change-2.41
Today Daily Change %-2.84
Today daily open84.85
 
Trends
Daily SMA2085.14
Daily SMA5085.79
Daily SMA10080.7
Daily SMA20077.99
 
Levels
Previous Daily High85.55
Previous Daily Low82.84
Previous Weekly High88.12
Previous Weekly Low81.91
Previous Monthly High93.98
Previous Monthly Low83.09
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%84.52
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%83.88
Daily Pivot Point S183.27
Daily Pivot Point S281.7
Daily Pivot Point S380.56
Daily Pivot Point R185.99
Daily Pivot Point R287.13
Daily Pivot Point R388.7

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD softens below 0.7050 on risk-off mood, China's Manufacturing PMI data looms

The AUD/USD pair declines to around 0.7025 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Australian Dollar amid elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index report is due later on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on Tuesday.



USD/JPY meets support near 157.00

USD/JPY retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, revisiting the 157.00 region before attempting some recovery as investors continue to assess the latest BoJ meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated.

Gold sinks to fresh yearly lows despite risk-off mood as Fed rate hike bets weigh

Gold slips to fresh year-to-date lows on Friday. The metal struggles despite a risk-off mood across markets, as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes continue to dominate price action, leaving Gold on track to end the month in negative territory.


Week ahead: Nonfarm Payrolls and US midterm elections take center stage
The US dollar traded higher against most of its peers this week, beginning the week on a solid footing amid expectations of a hawkish FOMC decision on Wednesday. Although market participants were convinced that a rate hike was off the table, they were on the lookout for clues and hints on whether they were correct in nearly fully pricing in a 25bps rate hike in December.
Middle East War updates: Iran warns of expanded strikes against US despite progress in talks

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.