Virgin Galactic trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating higher
Introduction
VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.
Market Summary
SPCE last price was $ 6.37 . In the short term Virgin Galactic has been accelerating higher. In the long term Virgin Galactic has been accelerating higher. Over the past 20 days, the SPCE price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 4.4543% The average return on days where the price decreased is -3.7375% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 22.97% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 1.1485% percent. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.
The Trade Idea
Buy $ 42,938 USD of Virgin Galactic ,
take profit
at $ 6.6259 level with 25.01% odds for a $ 1,724 USD gain,
stop out
at $ 6.2216 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss
Intraday Predictions
SPCE Trend Analysis
SPCE last price was $ 6.37 . The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating .
SPCE Value Analysis
Over the past 20 days, the SPCE price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 4.4543% The average return on days where the price decreased is -3.7375% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 22.97% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 1.1485% percent.
SPCE Worst/Best Case Scenario Analysis
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for SPCE, is $ 5.9264 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 6.8136 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 6.2216 could trade and that $ 6.6259 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Expected Range
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for SPCE, is $ 5.9264 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 6.8136 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.
We are 50% confident that $ 6.2216 could trade and that $ 6.6259 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Probability Vs Payout Chart:
This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.
Key Takeaways:
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Price today $ 6.37
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Over the past 20 days, the SPCE price increased 12 days and decreased 8 Days.
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For every up day, there were 0.67 down days.
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The average return on days where the price increased is 4.4543%
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The average return on days where the price decreased is -3.7375%
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Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 22.97% percent.
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Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 1.1485% percent.
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Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: $ 0.0089 per day higher
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Over the last session, the price increased by $ 0.27
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Over the last session, the price increased by 4.2386 %
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Over the last session, the price accelerated by $ 0.21
Author
Barry Weinstein
Volatility Markets Newswire
Barry Weinstein was a forex derivatives trader at BlueCrest Capital which was one of the largest hedge funds in Europe and then joined Credit Suisse where he assisted in running one of the largest FX Options portfolios in Europe.
