EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound stalls below 200-day SMA
- EUR/JPY rebounds after three losses, but bias remains fragile.
- RSI points lower, suggesting sellers still hold momentum.
- Break below 180.00 exposes 179.30 and 178.82 next.
The EUR/JPY buyers stop the bleeding after three consecutive days of losses, registering modest gains of 0.56% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at around 181.90 after US and Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets to propel the Japanese Yen against its pairs.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Following last week’s intervention, the EUR/JPY shifted from bullish to sideways trading, slightly tilted to the downside, after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum suggests further downside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tumbles toward oversold territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear the figure at 180.00. Beneath this area lies the August 3 cycle low of 179.3, ahead of the October 30, 2025, high at 178.82
On the other hand, for a bullish resumption, traders must push EUR/JPY above the 182.00 level, followed by 183.00. Above these two milestones sits the 200-day SMA at 183.74.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
