USD/SGD: Upside risks as Hormuz crisis persists – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong flag slight upside risks for USD/SGD as the Hormuz standoff weighs on risk appetite and imported cost pressures. While Singapore Dollar (SGD) remains a regional defensive currency, they note fading bearish momentum and rising RSI on USD/SGD, alongside expectations that Singapore inflation will accelerate toward 2% as energy-related costs from the Middle East conflict pass through supply chains.

Defensive SGD faces inflation pressures

"Slight upward risk. USD/SGD inched higher overnight tracking the broad USD rebound."

"Pair was last at 1.2780 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose."

"Risks somewhat skewed to the upside for now. Resistance here at 1.2790/1.28 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 1.2850 (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo)."

"Support at 1.2750/60 levels (50 DMA, 50% fibo), 1.2670 (76.4% fibo). On relative terms, SGD can continue to trade like a regional defensive play, holding up better against higher-beta FX."

"Looking ahead our economists see the prolonged US-Iran war and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to trigger energy and petrochemical-related costs for businesses which could add to the inflationary pass-through into 2Q26 and potentially beyond."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD strengthens beyond mid-1.3300s vs weak USD amid fresh Iran diplomacy hopes

The GBP/USD pair builds on Friday's modest bounce from a three-week low and gains strong follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices above mid-1.3300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar.

EUR/USD climbs beyond 1.1400 as renewed Iran diplomacy hopes undermine safe-haven USD

The EUR/USD pair builds on a modest bullish gap opening and climbs back above the 1.1400 mark during the Asian session on Monday. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar, weighed down by renewed optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war.

Gold stays firm near $4,100 os Iran diplomacy hopes

Gold is off the highs but holds its bullish opening gap, while struggling near $4,100 early Monday. Despite the recent rebound, buyers trade with caution, keeping a close eye on the Middle East developments ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy verdict this week.

Bitcoin extends winning streak, Ethereum clears key hurdle, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple begin the week on a firm footing after surging over 1%, 4% and 1%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC holds above key technical resistance after recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

Australian Dollar outlook: Chances of another rally won’t be decided in Canberra, but in Washington

The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.