USD: Rebound stalls as labour doubts grow – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has weakened after the Dollar Index fell back below 97.000, with selling pressure linked to softer US labour market expectations and diversification concerns around US Treasuries. Markets are pricing around 58 bps of additional Federal Reserve easing by end-2027, with the next cut seen likely once a new Fed chair is in place.

Dollar softens on labour and flows

"The US dollar has continued to trade at weaker levels overnight after correcting lower at the start of this week."

"If labour demand continues to remain weak it will keep alive expectations for the Fed to lower rates further this year."

"The US rate market has been moving to price in more Fed cuts, and is currently pricing in around 58bps of easing by the end of next year."

"However the timing of the next rate cut is not expected until the new Fed chair is likely to be in place at the June FOMC meeting."

"Unlike for the US dollar yesterday, there was no sell-off in US Treasury market indicating market participants are not overly concerned by the report."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)