USD/JPY will likely remain well supported above its 200-DMA at 146.39 – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Japanese Yen (JPY) got whipsawed following the significantly higher trade union wage hikes. Economists at BBH analyze Yen’s outlook.

Significant higher trade union wage hikes

Japan’s Rengo, the largest trade union, agreed on total pay increases averaging 5.28% in 2024. This is up from 3.8% in 2023 and higher than the 4.1% rise expected by a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The probability implied by interest rate futures (OIS) of a 10 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy rate hike next week rose briefly to a high around 70% before settling back down around 60%.

In our view, Japan’s improving inflation backdrop and soft economic activity suggest the BoJ is unlikely to normalise the policy rate by more than is currently priced-in over 2024 (25 bps total rate hikes). As such, USD/JPY will likely remain well supported above its 200-DMA at 146.39.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD drops toward 1.3500 after weak UK jobs data

GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.3500 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data keep the British Pound under pressure, driving the pair lower.

EUR/USD flat lines below two-month high amid oil-driven inflation fears

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around the 1.1575-1.1580 region during the Asian session, and for now seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from a two-month top. However, a modest US Dollar uptick warrants some caution before positioning for the resumption of the recent move higher from the 1.1350 area, or the July monthly swing low.

Gold drifts lower amid oil-driven inflation risks and US-Iran tensions

Gold attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick, stalling a two-day move higher from the $4,300 neighborhood. The US Dollar builds on the overnight bounce from a two-month trough as inflation risks stemming from higher crude oil prices underpin prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and further underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which is seen exerting pressure on the precious metal.

Ripple and Stellar remain under bearish pressure as corrective declines cap upside

Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure as broader market uncertainty and weak technical momentum weigh on both altcoins. XRP is hovering below the key $1 mark on Tuesday while XLM continues its corrective decline below $0.157. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives and on-chain signals indicate cautious sentiment, leaving both cryptocurrencies vulnerable to further downside.

Silver’s new era: Supply deficits meet exploding industrial demand

Silver has experienced a wild ride in 2026, but The Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo says investors shouldn’t let the volatility obscure a much bigger story: the underlying silver market remains remarkably strong.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.