|

USD/JPY trades sideways before US jobs report with intervention risks in focus

  • USD/JPY consolidates just below the 160 handle as intervention risks keep upside in check
  • Thin holiday liquidity keeps USD/JPY range-bound ahead of US jobs data.
  • Japanese authorities warn against FX volatility as Yen weakness persists.

USD/JPY trades flat on Friday, fluctuating between minor gains and losses as thin holiday liquidity keeps price action subdued. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 159.58, with traders staying on the sidelines ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The upcoming US jobs report is expected to show a mild recovery in hiring, with Payrolls forecast at 60K following February’s sharp 92K decline, while the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 4.4%.

A stronger-than-expected reading could support the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the upside in USD/JPY appears limited as the pair trades close to the 160 level, which previously triggered intervention, keeping the risk of action by Japanese authorities in focus.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that authorities are “ready to act firmly” against excessive foreign exchange volatility, warning that “speculative moves in oil and foreign exchange markets have been active.” She added that the government is “prepared to respond on all fronts,” noting that such volatility is “affecting people’s lives.”

This comes as ongoing tensions surrounding the US-Iran war keep the Greenback well supported, while the resulting surge in Oil prices is fueling inflation concerns and weighing on economic growth, complicating the monetary policy outlook across major economies.

Japan’s situation differs from that of the US, as it relies heavily on imported energy, leaving it more exposed to rising Oil prices, while the US, as a net exporter, is relatively better positioned. This backdrop could slow the pace of further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), even as policymakers maintain a gradual tightening bias, with markets pricing in around a 70% probability of a rate hike at the April meeting.

Meanwhile, markets have largely priced out Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets and now expect rates to remain on hold through 2026.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.12%-0.05%0.04%-0.10%0.09%-0.07%
EUR0.05%-0.03%0.02%0.09%0.08%0.13%-0.02%
GBP0.12%0.03%0.06%0.12%0.13%0.15%0.00%
JPY0.05%-0.02%-0.06%0.08%0.05%0.11%-0.06%
CAD-0.04%-0.09%-0.12%-0.08%-0.02%0.04%-0.11%
AUD0.10%-0.08%-0.13%-0.05%0.02%0.05%-0.10%
NZD-0.09%-0.13%-0.15%-0.11%-0.04%-0.05%-0.16%
CHF0.07%0.02%-0.01%0.06%0.11%0.10%0.16%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD keeps the firm tone above 1.3600

GBP/USD clings to its daily gains, although it gives back some of them and recedes toward the 1.3630-1.3620 band on Thursday. Cable’s uptick comes despite the modest bounce in the Greenback, while investors gear up for key data releases on the UK calendar on Friday.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1670

EUR/USD gives away all its initial gains and receded to the sub-1.1700 region. The US Dollar’s late recovery has dragged the pair lower, leaving it practically unchanged following the NA session on Thursday. In the meantime, investors gear up for the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,500

Gold manages to regain some composure and reclaim the area beyond the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s daily decline comes amid the humble improvement in the US Dollar while US Treasury yields remain on the rise following Wednesday’s marked retracement across the curve.

XRP extends rally as bullish technical signals underpin breakout attempt

Ripple holds in bullish hands, as price action extends above $1.16 at the time of writing on Thursday. Since Monday, the cross-border remittance token has surged by more than 20%, reflecting a steady growth in risk-on sentiment. The broader crypto market sentiment is on an upward roll at 62 in the Greed territory on Thursday, up from 46 the previous day, according to the Fear & Greed Index.

Why long bonds have repriced the cost of money
The 30-year Treasury is 12 basis points below its highest level since before the financial crisis. Not its highest since 2023, or since the tightening cycle, but since June 12, 2007, the last time the longest bond in the world's deepest market yielded what it yields on Thursday. Getting there took two attempts and most of the year.
$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.